近日，暨南大学俞鹏飞团队揭示了适度的火山爆发和极端的野火使平流层湿润。相关论文于2026年7月1日发表在《自然》杂志上。

平流层水汽（SWV）是一种关键的温室气体，对全球气候和平流层臭氧化学均有重要影响。其丰度受到自然气候变率的强烈调控。长期以来，火山喷发被认为会通过对流层顶增温使平流层增湿，但一直缺乏观测证实。

研究组提供了自2005年以来中等强度火山喷发和极端野火系统性增加了平流层水汽的观测证据。两者都通过气溶胶引起的对流层顶增温发挥作用；然而，极端野火还显示出一种额外的自抬升路径，将水汽输送到平流层。对卫星观测和气候模式模拟的互补分析显示，在83 hPa高度处SWV增强约0.1 ppmv，在2005–2021年间累积了76–203百万吨水汽。这一贡献解释了该时期观测到的SWV趋势的36±7%，与全球地表温度升高的贡献相当。

由地表温度趋势、中等强度火山喷发和极端野火事件引起的SWV变化共同有效抵消了约2000年观测到的SWV突然下降10%的现象。因此，中等强度火山喷发和极端野火带来的偶发性气溶胶扰动，成为此前被忽视的SWV变率驱动因素。未来对平流层组成、辐射强迫和臭氧恢复的预测中，应考虑这些气溶胶介导的过程，尤其是在全球变暖背景下极端野火加剧的情况下。

附：英文原文

Title: Moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires humidify the stratosphere

Author: Peng, Yifeng, Randel, William, Toon, Owen Brian, Wang, Xinyue, Qie, Kai, Davis, Sean M., Rosenlof, Karen H., Yu, Pengfei

Issue&Volume: 2026-07-01

Abstract: Stratospheric water vapour (SWV) is a key greenhouse gas that influences both global climate and stratospheric ozone chemistry1,2,3,4. Its abundance is strongly modulated by natural climate variability1,5,6,7,8. Volcanic eruptions have long been expected to humidify the stratosphere via tropopause warming9,10, but observational confirmation has been lacking. Here we provide observational evidence that moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires since 2005 have systematically increased SWV. Both contribute through aerosol-induced tropopause warming; however, extreme wildfires reveal an additional self-lofting pathway that transports water vapour into the stratosphere. Complementary analysis of satellite observations and climate model simulations reveals an SWV enhancement of about 0.1ppmv at 83hPa, accumulating 76–203million tons of water vapour during 2005–2021. This contribution explains 36±7% of the observed SWV trend over this period, comparable to that from the global surface temperature increase. SWV changes induced by the surface temperature trend, moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfire events have together effectively offset the sudden 10% SWV decrease observed around 2000. Episodic aerosol perturbations from moderate volcanic eruptions and extreme wildfires therefore emerge as a previously overlooked driver of SWV variability. Future projections of stratospheric composition, radiative forcing and ozone recovery should account for these aerosol-mediated processes, especially as extreme fires intensify in a warming world.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10731-0

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10731-0