近日，德国莱布尼茨淡水生态和内陆渔业研究所Songjun Wu团队报道了氮循环沿景观水速梯度的发散演化。相关论文发表在2026年6月11日出版的《科学》杂志上。

日益增加的施肥已使氮循环超出了地球的行星边界，但由于氮模型中长期忽视景观水流速度，氮的去向仍不确定。

利用同位素辅助建模方法，研究组对3821个欧洲集水区进行了分析，结果表明自1980年以来，氮循环的演变与景观水流速度的变化密切相关。研究组提出了“湿度边界”的概念，即当水文转变跨越边界时会加剧氮的积累与淋溶，而当条件保持在边界内时则会减缓这些过程。

应用这一框架，研究组预测到2100年，在水文变化较为温和的情景下，欧洲 76% 的地区氮淋溶将减少；但在东欧和南欧，水循环显著减速将导致氮积累增加。这些发现突显了气候变化背景下新出现的水质风险，以及缓解极端水文变化的必要性。

附：英文原文

Title: Divergent evolution of nitrogen cycling along gradients of landscape water velocities

Author: Songjun Wu, Chris Soulsby, Yi Zheng, Andreas Musolff, Doerthe Tetzlaff

Issue&Volume: 2026-06-11

Abstract: Increasing fertilization has pushed the nitrogen cycle beyond planetary boundaries, yet its fate remains uncertain owing to long-standing neglect of landscape water velocities in nitrogen models. Leveraging isotope-aided modeling across 3821 European catchments, we demonstrate that evolution of nitrogen cycling is strongly linked to shifts in landscape water velocities since 1980. We propose the concept of “wetness boundaries,” where hydrological transitions beyond boundaries amplify nitrogen accumulation and leaching, whereas conditions remaining within boundaries mitigate these processes. Applying this framework, we project reduced nitrogen leaching across 76% of Europe under mild hydrological shifts by 2100 but increasing nitrogen accumulation under pronounced deceleration of water cycling in Eastern and Southern Europe. These findings underscore emerging water quality risks under climate change and the need to mitigate extreme hydrological shifts.

DOI: aed0399

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aed0399