近日，美国斯坦福大学Marshall Burke团队报道了低烈度火灾对空气污染的好处。该研究于2026年6月11日发表在《科学》杂志上。

野火正在逆转美国大部分地区几十年来空气质量改善的成果。 扩大计划烧除的使用是一项主要的解决方案，但其空气质量方面的权衡——即用初期的更多烟雾换取后期的更少烟雾——仍未得到充分量化。

利用加州二十年来关于火灾烈度和烟雾颗粒物的卫星遥感数据，研究组评估了低烈度野火（作为计划烧除的代理指标）对后续野火活动和空气质量的因果效应。结果发现，低烈度火灾使极高烈度野火的发生概率降低了 92%，其效果可持续十年，并延伸至处理区域外5公里。未来减少的烟雾远远超过了处理期间产生的烟雾，十年后的效益成本比超过5。每年持续处理50万英亩，十年后可使累积烟雾细颗粒物（PM2.5）减少约10%。

附：英文原文

Title: The air pollution benefits of low-severity fire

Author: Iván Higuera-Mendieta, Marshall Burke

Issue&Volume: 2026-06-11

Abstract: Wildfires are reversing decades of air quality improvements across much of the US. Expanded use of prescribed fire is a primary proposed solution, but air quality trade-offs—more initial smoke for less smoke later—remain poorly quantified. Using two decades of satellite-derived measurements of fire severity and smoke particulate matter across California, we assessed the causal effect of low-severity wildfire, a proxy for prescribed burning, on subsequent wildfire activity and air quality. We found that low-severity fire reduced the probability of very-high-severity wildfire by 92%, with reductions lasting a decade and extending 5 kilometers from treated locations. Reduced future smoke far outweighed the smoke produced during treatment, with benefit-cost ratios exceeding five after a decade. Sustained treatment of 500,000 acres annually would reduce cumulative smoke fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by about 10% after a decade.

DOI: aea2490

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aea2490