近日，美国科罗拉多大学博尔德分校Bradley R. Markle团队报道了依赖于温度的反馈驱动着南极温度变化的模式。2026年5月11日出版的《美国科学院院刊》杂志发表了这项成果。
南极洲是地球气候系统的重要组成部分。
研究组利用冰芯水同位素记录的综合数据集，研究了在过去的40万年中，从千年尺度到轨道尺度等多个时间尺度上南极洲的温度变化。他们识别出一种持续的变化模式：南极某一地点的温度变异性随其平均表面温度的升高而增加。当整个大陆变暖时，南极最温暖的区域增温更多；当整个大陆变冷时，最温暖的区域降温也更多。这一模式与普朗克响应（即南极温度变化的最简单的零假设）不一致。然而，一种依赖于温度的反馈机制可以解释这种基本的温度变化模式。该反馈源自温室效应的非线性特征，且仅在南极寒冷的表面温度条件下才显著。
这种反馈可能由任何平均能量强迫触发，因此在所有时间尺度上均有体现。偏离预期温度变化模式的局部差异则指示了区域性强迫因素，例如冰盖高度的变化。研究组重建了西南极主要冰水分水岭在末次冰消期以来的表面高程变化，得到了一个得到地质和冰川学证据支持、且与冰盖模型结果一致的历史演变过程。
附：英文原文
Title: Temperature-dependent feedbacks drive the pattern of Antarctic temperature change
Author: Markle, Bradley R., Steig, Eric J.
Issue&Volume: 2026-5-11
Abstract: Antarctica is an important component of the Earth’s climate system. Here we investigate temperature change in Antarctica across a range of timescales, from millennial to orbital, over the last 4×105 y, using a compilation of ice-core water-isotope records. We identify a persistent pattern of change in which the temperature variability of an Antarctic site increases with its mean surface temperature. When the entire continent warms, the warmest parts of Antarctica warm more; when the entire continent cools, the warmest parts cool more. This pattern is inconsistent with the Planck response, the simplest possible null hypothesis for Antarctic temperature change. However, a temperature-dependent feedback explains the fundamental pattern of temperature change. The feedback arises from a nonlinearity of the greenhouse effect, evident only at the cold surface temperatures of the Antarctic. This feedback may be initiated by any mean energetic forcing and thus manifests across all timescales. Local deviations from the expected pattern of temperature change indicate regional forcing such as changes in ice-sheet elevation. We reconstruct the surface elevation of the main ice divide in West Antarctica over the last deglaciation, finding a history that is supported by geological and glaciological evidence and consistent with ice-sheet modeling.
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2513383123
Source: https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2513383123