近日，美国南加州大学洛杉矶分校Mingqi Liu团队报道了实皆断层的动态分段。相关论文于2026年5月7日发表在《科学》杂志上。

尽管2025年曼德勒7.7级矩震级地震中破裂的实皆断层结构简单，但在缺乏主要几何复杂性的情况下仍表现出清晰的动态分段特征。

通过基于物理的地震周期模拟，研究组验证了一个假设：实皆断层的动态分段受到长期滑移率由南向北从18毫米/年增至28毫米/年的影响。纳入大地测量约束的长期滑移率的模型，成功再现了历史地震的破裂范围以及2025年主震由大地测量反演得到的滑移分布。相邻断层段之间10%至20%的滑移率差异产生了足够的不均匀应力积累，从而引发动态分段，并调控整个断裂带的地震复发模式与最大震级。这些结果凸显了整合大地测量、地质和地震学观测以改进地震灾害评估的价值。

附：英文原文

Title: Dynamic segmentation of the Sagaing fault

Author: Mingqi Liu, Binhao Wang, Sezim E. Guvercin, Zhen Li, Teng Wang, Chuanjin Liu, Lingyun Ji, Sylvain Barbot

Issue&Volume: 2026-05-07

Abstract: The structurally simple Sagaing fault, which ruptured during the 2025 moment magnitude 7.7 Mandalay earthquake, exhibits clear dynamic segmentation despite lacking major geometric complexities. Using physics-based seismic cycle simulations, we tested the hypothesis that dynamic segmentation on the Sagaing fault is influenced by a northward increase in long-term slip rates from 18 to 28 millimeter/year. Models incorporating geodetically constrained long-term slip rates reproduced the rupture extent of historical earthquakes and the geodetically inferred slip distribution of the 2025 mainshock. Slip rate contrasts of 10 to 20% between adjacent segments generate sufficient heterogeneous stress accumulation to initiate dynamic segmentation, regulating earthquake recurrence patterns and maximum magnitudes across the fault system. These results highlight the value of integrating geodetic, geological, and seismological observations to improve seismic hazard assessment.

DOI: ady3237

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ady3237