近日，美国加州大学戴维斯分校Xiaoli Dong团队报道了气候引起的范围变化支持了当地植物的多样性，但并没有减少灭绝的风险。相关论文于2026年5月7日发表在《科学》杂志上。

气候变化正驱动植物分布范围发生广泛迁移，但由于真实迁移动态很少被纳入全球尺度的生物多样性模型中，这种迁移对物种灭绝和生物多样性的影响仍不明确。

研究组将物种特异性的分布区迁移速率整合到物种分布模型中，以预测2081至2100年间67,664种植物（占全球植物区系18%）的分布情况。在不同排放情景下，预计有7%至16%的物种将失去超过90%的分布区，从而面临较高的灭绝风险。

这些丧失主要由气候驱动的栖息地损失引起，而非扩散限制所致。尽管分布区迁移对缓解全球灭绝的作用微乎其微，但预计其将增加地球28%陆地区域的局部植物丰富度。因此，促进分布区迁移或许能维持局部丰富度，但不会减少全球灭绝。

附：英文原文

Title: Climate-induced range shifts support local plant diversity but don’t reduce extinction risk

Author: Junna Wang, Brunno F. Oliveira, Frances C. Moore, Daniel J. Kozar, Yongshuo Fu, Xiaoli Dong

Issue&Volume: 2026-05-07

Abstract: Climate change is driving widespread plant range shifts, yet their consequences for extinction and biodiversity remain unclear as realistic range shift dynamics have rarely been incorporated into global-scale biodiversity models. We integrate species-specific range shift velocities into species distribution models to project distributions of 67,664 plant species (18% of all global flora) by 2081 to 2100. Across emissions scenarios, 7 to 16% of species are projected to lose >90% of their range, placing them at high risk of extinction. These losses are driven primarily by climate-induced habitat loss, rather than dispersal limitation. Although range shifts offer little relief from global extinctions, they are projected to increase local plant richness across 28% of Earth’s land. Facilitating range shifts may thus sustain local richness but not reduce global extinctions.

DOI: aea1676

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aea1676