近日，美国加州大学圣巴巴拉分校Samantha Stevenson团队报道了温室变暖下太平洋热带不稳定波活动的预估变化。该项研究成果发表在2026年3月30日出版的《美国科学院院刊》杂志上。

热带不稳定波主导了热带太平洋的季节内变率，对气候变率和海洋生态系统具有重要影响。然而，由于目前多数气候模式无法很好地解析该过程，其对温室增暖的响应尚不明确。

研究组利用一套能够表征热带不稳定波的高分辨率气候模式模拟，揭示了驱动热带不稳定波对二氧化碳增加响应的两个一致且不同的机制。在赤道以北，随着二氧化碳浓度升高，秋季主导纬向流的经向切变增强，导致热带不稳定波活动增强。

沿赤道区域，由于经向温度梯度减弱以及赤道潜流变浅，热带不稳定波活动减弱并略微向西移动。这些变化导致热带不稳定波驱动的温度变率及其相关的涡旋动力加热在赤道地区显著减弱，凸显了其在约束未来热带太平洋增暖幅度及空间格局方面的重要性。

附：英文原文

Title: Projected changes in tropical instability wave activity in the Pacific Ocean under greenhouse warming

Author: Xue, Aoyun, Stevenson, Samantha, Boucharel, Julien, Jin, Fei-Fei, Zhang, Wenjun, Wang, Minyang

Issue&Volume: 2026-3-30

Abstract: Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) dominate intraseasonal variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean, strongly impacting climate variability and marine ecosystems. However, their response to greenhouse warming remains uncertain because most current climate models cannot resolve them well. Using a suite of high-resolution climate model simulations capable of representing TIWs, we identify two consistent and distinct mechanisms driving the response of TIWs to CO2 increases. North of the equator, TIW activity intensifies under higher CO2 due to enhanced meridional shear of the prevailing zonal currents during boreal fall. Along the equator, TIW activity weakens and shifts slightly westward, driven by a reduced meridional temperature gradient and shoaling of the Equatorial Undercurrent. These changes result in a robust decrease in TIW-driven temperature variability and associated eddy dynamical heating along the equator, underscoring their importance for constraining both the magnitude and spatial pattern of future tropical Pacific warming.

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2530859123

Source: https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2530859123