近日，华东师范大学郭磊城团队报道了长江口吴淞口百年平均和最大海平面变化。相关论文于2026年4月13日发表在《中国科学：地球科学》杂志上。

长期潮位记录对于理解海平面变化和管理沿海洪涝风险至关重要。尽管大多数研究聚焦于最近四十年，但百年尺度的分析仍然有限。

研究组基于地面沉降和基准面变化的校正，整理并重建了1912年至2024年间长江口吴淞验潮站的潮位高度数据。数据分析表明，地面沉降是数据差异的主要原因，累计沉降量高达约1.28米。1912–2024年间，平均海平面上升速率为1.89毫米/年，而1972–2024年间上升速率增加至2.16毫米/年，表明海平面上升呈加速趋势。

该速率低于近海大戢山验潮站的速率，表明由于径流和潮汐振荡的作用，河口内的上升速率受到抑制。此外，自1963年以来，年最高潮位以7.62毫米/年的速率上升，是平均海平面上升速率的三倍，表明极端水位及其随之而来的洪涝风险正在加剧。这些结果为中国百年尺度海平面变化研究提供了参考，并对黄浦江的洪涝风险管理以及吴淞口挡潮闸的建设具有启示意义。

附：英文原文

Title: Centennial mean and maximal sea level changes at Wusong in the Yangtze Estuary

Author: Saiyin HU, Leicheng GUO, Chunyan ZHU, Weiming XIE, Qing HE, Zhilin LU

Issue&Volume: 2026/04/13

Abstract: Long-term tidal records are essential for understanding sea-level changes and managing coastal flood risk. While most studies focused on the recent four decades, centennial-scale analyses remain limited. In this contribution, we assemble and reconstruct tidal height data at the Wusong gauge in the Yangtze Estuary between 1912 and 2024, based on the correction of land subsidence and datum change. Data analyses indicate that land subsidence is the primary cause of data discrepancy, with a cumulative subsidence up to approximately 1.28m. The mean sea level rise rate is 1.89mma1 for 1912–2024 and increased to 2.16mma1 for 1972–2024, suggesting accelerated sea level rise. This rate is lower than that at the offshore gauge Dajishan, suggesting a damped rising rate within the estuary due to river discharge and tidal oscillations. In addition, the annually maximum tide levels rise at a rate of 7.62mma1 since 1963, three times larger than the rate of mean sea level rise, implying escalating extreme water levels and subsequent flood risks. These results provide a reference for studies of centennial sea level changes in China, and have implications for flood risk management in the Huangpu River and construction of a tidal barrier at Wusong.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-025-1833-9

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/SCES/doi/10.1007/s11430-025-1833-9