近日，荷兰瓦赫宁根大学Philip S. J. Minderhoud团队报道了海平面远高于大多数沿海灾害评估的假设。该项研究成果发表在2026年3月4日出版的《自然》杂志上。

海平面上升及其他灾害对全球海岸带的影响，取决于沿海海平面高度和陆地海拔高度的共同作用。将这两个要素正确结合，是进行可靠的海平面上升评估及海岸带灾害影响研究的基础，但这一关键步骤往往未得到审慎考量或正确实施。

研究组表明，超过99%的已评估影响研究在处理海平面和陆地海拔数据时存在方法缺陷，从而误判了海岸带相对高程关系。根据该文献评估，90%的灾害评估所依据的海平面数据是基于大地水准面模型，而非实际海平面测量值。全球尺度的荟萃分析显示，实测海岸带海平面高于多数灾害评估的假设值（以两种常用大地水准面模型计，平均偏差分别为0.27米 [标准差0.76米] 和0.24米 [标准差0.52米]）。在区域层面，尤其是在全球南方，实测平均海平面可高出全球大地水准面1米以上，其中印度洋-太平洋海域差异最大。

相较于基于大地水准面的海岸带海平面假设，若以相对海平面上升1米计，实测数据表明将有更多陆地（增加31%-37%）和更多人口（增加48%-68%，受影响总人口预计增至7700万至1.32亿）处于海平面以下。研究结果凸显了重新评估现有海岸带影响评估的必要性，以及提升科研界研究标准的紧迫性，并可能对政策制定、气候融资和海岸带适应规划产生深远影响。

附：英文原文

Title: Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments

Author: Seeger, Katharina, Minderhoud, Philip S. J.

Issue&Volume: 2026-03-04

Abstract: The impacts of sea-level rise and other hazards on the coasts of the world are determined by coastal sea-level height and land elevation1. Correct integration of both aspects is fundamental for reliable sea-level rise and coastal hazard impact assessments2,3, but is often not carefully considered or properly performed. Here we show that more than 99% of the evaluated impact assessments handled sea-level and land elevation data inadequately, thereby misjudging sea level relative to coastal elevation. Based on our literature evaluation, 90% of the hazard assessments assume coastal sea levels based on geoid models, rather than using actual sea-level measurements. Our meta-analyses on global scale show that measured coastal sea level is higher than assumed in most hazard assessments (mean offsets [standard deviation] of 0.27m [0.76m] and 0.24m [0.52 m] for two commonly-used geoids). Regionally, predominantly in the Global South, measured mean sea level can be more than 1m above global geoids, with the largest differences in the Indo-Pacific. Compared with geoid-based assumptions of coastal sea level, the measured values suggest that with a hypothetical 1m of relative sea-level rise, 31–37% more land and 48–68% more people (increasing estimates to 77–132 million) would fall below sea level. Our results highlight the need for re-evaluation of existing coastal impact assessments and improvement of research community standards, with possible implications for policymakers, climate finance and coastal adaptation.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10196-1

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10196-1