近日，瑞士巴塞尔大学Marc Grünig团队报道了在整个21世纪，气候变化将增加欧洲的森林扰动。这一研究成果发表在2026年3月5日出版的《科学》杂志上。

野火、虫害爆发和风暴导致树木大量死亡。气候变化加剧了这些森林扰动，但其未来的规模和范围仍不确定。

研究组利用基于深度学习的模拟框架，以100米分辨率模拟了欧洲未来森林扰动机制的变化。结果表明，在整个21世纪，森林扰动将持续增加；如果气候变化持续不减，受干扰区域面积将比近期翻一番以上。野火是驱动未来扰动变化的主要因素。扰动机制的变化导致幼龄林增加，极大地改变了欧洲的森林种群结构。鉴于其对森林碳储存和森林生态系统栖息地价值的深远影响，扰动应成为森林政策和管理的优先关注事项。

附：英文原文

Title: Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century

Author: Marc Grünig, Werner Rammer, Cornelius Senf, Katharina Albrich, Frédéric André, Andrey L. D. Augustynczik, Martin Baumann, Friedrich J. Bohn, Meike Bouwman, Harald Bugmann, Alessio Collalti, Irina Cristal, Daniela Dalmonech, Francois De Coligny, Laura Dobor, Christina Dollinger, Josep Maria Espelta, David I. Forrester, Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo, José Ramón González-Olabarria, Ulrike Hiltner, Tomá Hlásny, Juha Honkaniemi, Nica Huber, Mathieu Jonard, Anna Maria Jnsson, Georges Kunstler, Fredrik Lagergren, Marcus Lindner, Marco Mina, Christine Moos, Xavier Morin, Bart Muys, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Mats Nieberg, Marco Patacca, Mikko Peltoniemi, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Ilié Storms, Dominik Thom, Maude Togo, Rupert Seidl

Issue&Volume: 2026-03-05

Abstract: Wildfires, insect outbreaks, and storms cause large pulses of tree mortality. Climate change amplifies these forest disturbances, yet their future magnitude and extent remain uncertain. Here, we simulated future forest disturbance regimes at 100-meter resolution across Europe using a deep learning–based simulation framework. Our results show that forest disturbances will continue to increase throughout the 21st century, with disturbed areas more than doubling relative to the recent past under an unabated continuation of climate change. Wildfires are the main agent driving future disturbance change. Changing disturbances result in an increase in young forests, substantially altering Europe’s forest demography. Because of their profound implications for forest carbon storage and the habitat value of forest ecosystems, disturbances should be a priority of forest policy and management.

DOI: adx6329

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adx6329