近日，英国生态与水文中心Christopher M. Taylor团队揭示了风切变增强了土壤水分对快速雷暴生长的影响。相关论文于2026年3月4日发表在《自然》杂志上。

对流风暴发展迅速，通过强降水、强风和闪电给当地居民带来危害。预报系统通常能较好地捕获雷暴形成的大尺度环境场，但预测单个风暴的起始位置仍是一项基本挑战。已知由土壤湿度（SM）模式驱动的非均匀加热会形成有利于在较干燥土壤上空引发对流的大气环流，而中低层之间的风切变会增强风暴的发展。

研究组表明，SM差异与风切变的协同作用尤其有利于极端风暴的激发。通过对撒哈拉以南非洲地区220万次午后事件的分析，研究组发现，在土壤条件有利（相对于不利）的情况下，被归类为极端的起始事件数多出68%，在SM驱动的气流循环与风切变诱导的云层移动方向相反的地方，风暴垂直发展最为强烈。

发展的云层顺着中层风向移动，当与低层气流方向相反时，降雨量与局地较干燥的土壤呈现强相关性。尽管这种切变条件在热带北非地区尤为常见，但其影响在全球范围内有利于SM-降水负反馈。SM异质性与风切变相结合，为预测深对流在何处发展提供了潜在重要预报依据，尤其是对于发展最为迅猛的雷暴而言。

附：英文原文

Title: Wind shear enhances soil moisture influence on rapid thunderstorm growth

Author: Taylor, Christopher M., Klein, Cornelia, Barton, Emma J., Hahn, Sebastian, Wagner, Wolfgang

Issue&Volume: 2026-03-04

Abstract: Convective storms can develop rapidly, creating hazards to local populations through intense precipitation, strong winds and lightning1. The large-scale environment in which thunderstorms develop is often well captured in forecast systems, yet predicting where individual storms will initiate remains a fundamental challenge. It is known that differential heating driven by soil moisture (SM) patterns creates atmospheric circulations that favour convective initiation over drier soils2,3, whereas wind shear between low and mid levels can enhance storm growth4,5. Here we show that the most extreme initiations are especially favoured over SM contrasts by means of an interaction with wind shear. Analysing 2.2million afternoon events across sub-Saharan Africa, we find 68% more initiations classed as extreme given favourable (versus unfavourable) soil conditions, with greatest vertical storm growth occurring where SM-driven circulations oppose the direction of shear-induced cloud displacement. Developing clouds follow the mid-level wind direction and, where this opposes the low-level flow, rainfall is strongly correlated with locally drier soils. Although such shear conditions are particularly common over tropical north Africa, the effect favours negative SM–precipitation feedbacks globally. The combination of SM heterogeneity and wind shear provides a potentially important source of predictability for where deep convection develops, particularly for the most rapidly developing thunderstorms.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-10045-7

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-10045-7