近日，中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院康世昌团队报道了大西洋多年代际变率在调节北极海冰损失和湿润中的作用。该研究于2026年3月27日发表在《科学-进展》杂志上。
近几十年来，北极降水有所增加（以下称“北极湿润化”），但其驱动因素尚不明确。
利用观测数据、再分析资料及单模式初始条件大集合，研究组表明，1979年至2024年间，海冰减少导致的蒸发增强是北极湿润化的主要驱动因素，尤其在大西洋扇区。然而，大多数单模式初始条件大集合中的外强迫分量仅能解释观测与再分析数据中约69%的海冰减少和75%的湿润化程度。进一步分析显示，观测到的北大西洋多年代际变率这一北半球年代际内部变率从负相位向正相位的转变，显著加剧了北极海冰减少，进而使湿润化速率加快约31%。
在SSP3-7.0情景下，若近期北大西洋多年代际变率从当前+1标准差异常转变为−1标准差异常，则相对于单纯的外强迫响应，北极海冰减少速率和湿润化速率将分别减缓近29%和33%。这些结果突显了北大西洋多年代际变率在调控北极海冰减少与湿润化过程中的关键作用，并强调了在北极近期气候预估中考虑其相位变化的必要性。
附：英文原文
Title: Role of Atlantic multidecadal variability in modulating Arctic sea ice loss and wetting
Author: Ziyi Cai, Qinglong You, James A. Screen, Hans W. Chen, Ruonan Zhang, Zhiyan Zuo, Deliang Chen, Judah Cohen, Shichang Kang, Weiming Ma, Sergey K. Gulev, G. W. K. Moore, Renhe Zhang
Issue&Volume: 2026-03-27
Abstract: Arctic precipitation has increased in recent decades (hereafter, Arctic wetting), but the drivers remain uncertain. Using observations, reanalyses, and single-model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), we show that enhanced evaporation due to sea ice loss has been the primary driver of Arctic wetting during 1979–2024, especially in the Atlantic sector. However, the externally forced component in most SMILEs explains only ~69% of sea ice loss and 75% of wetting in the observations and reanalyses. Further analysis reveals that the observed transition of one of the Northern Hemisphere’s interdecadal internal variability—Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV)—from a negative to a positive phase substantially enhanced Arctic sea ice loss, thereby accelerating wetting by about 31%. Under SSP3-7.0, if the AMV switches phase in the near future from the current +1 to a 1 standard deviation anomaly, then the rates of Arctic sea ice loss and wetting would slow by nearly 29 and 33%, respectively, relative to the externally forced response alone. These results underscore the pivotal role of AMV in modulating Arctic sea ice loss and wetting and highlight the need to account for AMV phase changes in near-term Arctic climate projections.
DOI: ady7595
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.ady7595