近日，美国普林斯顿大学Jing Feng团队报道了对充分混合的温室气体的辐射强迫的强烈约束。这一研究成果于2026年3月18日发表在《自然》杂志上。

均匀混合温室气体（WMGHGs）产生的辐射强迫是地球能量失衡和全球地表气候变化的主要驱动力。由于长波瞬时辐射强迫（IRF）分量依赖于大气状态且易受辐射参数化误差影响，其精确估算始终面临挑战。IRF衡量的是由WMGHG浓度扰动引起的对流层顶辐射通量的即时变化。

研究组表明，自1850年以来，WMGHG浓度上升已使长波IRF增强3.69±0.07 W m^-2（95%置信区间）。首先利用全球逐线辐射传输模拟，建立了真实全天空条件下主要WMGHGs长波IRF的全球基准。进而发现长波IRF与出射长波辐射（OLR）之间存在稳健的线性关系，这使得可通过与卫星观测OLR的回归分析直接推断依赖于大气状态的长波IRF。

此外，在地球系统模型中，长波IRF可解释CO₂有效辐射强迫（ERF，包含IRF之外的大气快速调整）91%的模式间差异。利用回归技术对模式模拟的IRF进行基准检验表明，多数偏差源于辐射参数化方案，校正长波IRF偏差可使CO₂ ERF的不确定性降低50%。该研究为量化WMGHGs状态依赖辐射强迫建立了简洁而稳健的框架，为未来气候评估提供了基于观测信息的约束路径。

附：英文原文

Title: A strong constraint on radiative forcing of well-mixed greenhouse gases

Author: Feng, Jing, Paynter, David, Menzel, Raymond, Kramer, Ryan

Issue&Volume: 2026-03-18

Abstract: Radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) is a main driver of Earth’s energy imbalance and global surface climate change1,2. It remains difficult to constrain, largely because its longwave (LW) instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) component depends on atmospheric state and is subject to radiative parameterization error3,4,5,6,7. The IRF measures the immediate change in radiative fluxes at the tropopause8,9,10 caused by perturbations in WMGHG concentrations. Here we show that increasing WMGHG concentrations have enhanced LWIRF by 3.69±0.07Wm2 (95% confidence interval) since 1850. We first use global line-by-line radiative transfer simulations to provide a global benchmark of LWIRF for the main WMGHGs under realistic, all-sky conditions. We then identify a robust linear relationship between LWIRF and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), enabling state-dependent LWIRF to be directly inferred from regressions against satellite-observed OLR. Furthermore, LWIRF explains 91% of the inter-model spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF, which includes rapid atmospheric adjustments beyond the IRF) for CO2 (ref.11) across Earth system models. Benchmarking model-simulated IRF using the regression technique reveals that most discrepancies originate from radiation parameterizations and correcting LWIRF biases would reduce uncertainty in CO2 ERF by 50%. Our results establish a simple and robust framework for quantifying state-dependent radiative forcing of WMGHGs, providing an observation-informed pathway for future climate assessments.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10289-x

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10289-x