利用1033条北美鸟类调查路线，分析了1987-2021年北美54个鸟类科261种鸟类的丰度变化及其加速特征。该研究组发现，在每条本地航线上，所有鸟类的丰度在整个大陆范围内平均下降，北美南部和温暖地区的下降热点和大西洋中部、中西部和加利福尼亚的加速下降热点，与农业强度的模式相匹配。总体而言，122种（47%）鸟类数量显著下降，其中63种呈加速下降趋势，67种呈人均增长率下降趋势，这引起了人们对大部分北美鸟类种群的担忧。这些发现表明，鸟类丰度的下降主要是在加速，这种加速的空间格局表明，农业强度可能是这种趋势的驱动因素。
据介绍，人类活动可能加速了人口丰度的下降，但这种加速仍未得到充分研究。
附：英文原文
Title: Acceleration hotspots of North American birds’ decline are associated with agriculture
Author: Franois Leroy, Marta A. Jarzyna, Petr Keil
Issue&Volume: 2026-02-26
Abstract: Human activities might have accelerated declines of population abundance, but this acceleration remains underexplored. Using 1033 North American Breeding Bird Survey routes, we analyze abundance change and its acceleration for 261 bird species, 54 avian families, and 10 habitats from 1987 to 2021. We show an average continent-wide decline of abundance of all birds per local route, with hotspots of decline in southern and warm parts of North America and hotspots of accelerating decline in the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and California, matching patterns of agricultural intensity. Overall, 122 species (47%) exhibit significant declines, of which 63 also show acceleration of this decline, and 67 show declining per-capita growth rate, raising concerns for a large part of North American bird populations. These findings suggest that bird abundance decline is mostly accelerating, with spatial patterns of this acceleration indicating that agricultural intensity may be a driver of this trend.
DOI: ads0871
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ads0871