近日，以色列魏茨曼科学研究所Rei Chemke团队报道了气候变化使北太平洋风暴路径向两极移动。相关论文发表在2026年1月7日出版的《自然》杂志上。

在整个北太平洋，中纬度风暴轨道是进入北极和北美西部的大部分热量和水分输送的原因，极大地影响了区域降水和温度模式。到本世纪末，北太平洋冬季风暴路径预计将向极地移动，对海洋生态系统和陆地水资源的可用性产生重大影响。尽管大气再分析表明风暴轨道向极地移动，但由于缺乏观测到的风记录，无法确定近几十年来是否发生了风暴轨道移动，以及气候变化在确定风暴轨道位置方面发挥了什么作用。

研究组推导出了中纬度风暴轨迹的观测约束，并表明冬季北太平洋风暴轨迹已从自然变化中大幅向极地移动。风暴路径引起的热量和水分通量在北美西部也明显向极地移动，这意味着对降水和温度模式的区域影响。该分析进一步揭示，气候模型低估了近几十年来风暴路径的极地转移，这表明未来人类对北太平洋生态系统和北美西部的影响可能比目前的预测更大。

附：英文原文

Title: Climate change shifts the North Pacific storm track polewards

Author: Chemke, Rei, Yuval, Janni

Issue&Volume: 2026-01-07

Abstract: Across the North Pacific Ocean, the mid-latitude storm track accounts for most of the heat and moisture transport into the Arctic and western North America, considerably influencing regional precipitation and temperature patterns1,2. By the end of this century, the winter North Pacific storm track is projected to shift polewards3,4,5,6, with substantial implications for oceanic ecosystems and land-based water availability1,7. Although atmospheric reanalyses suggest a polewards shift of the storm track7,8,9,10,11,12, the lack of an observed wind record has left it uncertain whether the storm-track shift has occurred in recent decades, and what role climate change plays in determining the storm-track position. Here we derive an observational constraint for mid-latitude storm tracks and show that the winter North Pacific storm track has shifted substantially polewards, emerging from natural variability. A polewards shift of storm track-induced heat and moisture flux is also evident over western North America, implying regional impacts on precipitation and temperature patterns. Our analysis further reveals that climate models underestimate the polewards shift of the storm track in recent decades, suggesting that the future human-induced impacts on both the North Pacific ecosystem and western North America might be larger than in current predictions.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09895-y

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09895-y