近日，印度理工学院Vimal Mishra团队揭示了恒河最近的干旱是1,300年来前所未有的。2025年9月22日，《美国科学院院刊》杂志发表了这一成果。

恒河流域对6亿多人至关重要，正经历着严重而前所未有的干旱趋势，威胁着水和粮食安全。根据仪器数据、古水文记录和水文建模，使用1300年（公元700年-2012年）的径流重建，研究组表明1991年至2020年的干旱是过去千年中无与伦比的。 

自20世纪90年代以来，由于频繁和长期的干旱，河流流量下降比16世纪的干旱严重76%，这是历史上最接近的类似情况。这种干燥超过了自然变率，突出了人为因素的主导作用。尽管CMIP6模型预测在变暖情景下流量会增加，但最近的下降表明未来水资源可用性预测的复杂性。该发现强调了迫切需要研究控制夏季季风降水因素之间的相互作用，包括大尺度气候变率和人为强迫。在气候模型中更好地约束这些过程对于改善未来的季风预测和实施适应性水管理战略以确保恒河流域在气候变化下的淡水供应至关重要。

附：英文原文

Title: Recent drying of the Ganga River is unprecedented in the last 1,300 years

Author: Singh Chuphal, Dipesh, Thirumalai, Kaustubh, Mishra, Vimal

Issue&Volume: 2025-9-22

Abstract: The Ganga River basin, critical to over 600 million people, is experiencing a severe and unprecedented drying trend, threatening water and food security. Using streamflow reconstructions spanning 1,300 y (700–2012 C.E.) from instrumental data, paleohydrological records, and hydrological modeling, we show that drying from 1991 to 2020 is unmatched in the past millennium. Streamflow decline since the 1990s, driven by frequent and prolonged droughts, is 76% more intense than the 16th-century drought—the closest historical analogue. This drying exceeds natural variability, highlighting the dominant role of anthropogenic factors. Despite CMIP6 models projecting increased streamflow under warming scenarios, the recent decline indicates complexities associated with future water availability projections. Our findings underscore the urgent need to examine the interactions among the factors that control summer monsoon precipitation, including largescale climate variability and anthropogenic forcings. Better constraints on these processes in climate models will be essential for improving future monsoon projections and implementing adaptive water management strategies to secure the Ganga basin’s freshwater availability under a changing climate.

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2424613122

Source: https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2424613122