近日，美国科罗拉多矿业学院Arielle Koshkin团队研究了当前和变暖的气候条件对烧毁森林积雪损失的影响。这一研究成果于2025年9月19日发表在《科学-进展》杂志上。

野火越来越多地在积雪为主的流域燃烧，并可能改变融雪的动态。然而，森林毁林积雪损失的空间变异性一直被低估。

研究组使用遥感降雪数据，表明在平均冬季条件下，99%的雪区在火灾后的第一年积雪融化得更早。与高海拔、寒冷地区相比，在相对低海拔、温暖的环境中，火灾后积雪损失更为极端。在气温上升2°C的情况下，与历史平均水平相比，73%的雪区将经历更极端的早期火灾后融雪。在平均气候条件下，在+2°C变暖条件下，火灾后融雪时间提前偏移最大的地区，在火灾后融雪时间提前偏移最大。火灾后融雪时间的空间变异性和预估暖冬的加剧影响影响生态系统的水分有效性、雪反照率反馈和融雪径流预测，这对水资源管理至关重要。

附：英文原文

Title: Impact of current and warmer climate conditions on snow cover loss in burned forests

Author: Arielle Koshkin, Adrienne M. Marshall, Karl Rittger

Issue&Volume: 2025-09-19

Abstract: Wildfires are increasingly burning in snow-dominated watersheds and can alter snowmelt dynamics. However, the spatial variability of snow cover loss in burned forests has been under characterized. Here, we use remotely sensed snow data to show that, under average winter conditions, snow melts earlier in the first year postfire in 99% of the snow zone. Postfire snow cover loss is more extreme in relatively low-elevation, warm environments compared to that in high-elevation, cold regions. Under +2°C of warming, 73% of the snow zone would experience more extreme earlier postfire snowmelt compared to historically average conditions. Regions with the largest shift earlier in postfire snowmelt timing under average climate conditions also have the largest shift earlier in postfire snowmelt under +2°C warming. The spatial variability in postfire snowmelt timing and exacerbated impact in projected warmer winters affect ecosystem water availability, snow albedo feedbacks, and snowmelt runoff forecasting essential to water resource management.

DOI: adt9866

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adt9866