近日，美国康涅狄格大学Zhe Zhu团队研究了美国从人为导向到无导向的野生土地干扰的转变。相关论文于2025年9月18日发表在《自然—地球科学》杂志上。
土地扰动是陆地生态系统动态的基本驱动因素，影响生物多样性、碳循环和陆地-大气相互作用。了解其机制的变化对于预测未来生态系统轨迹和指导可持续土地管理至关重要。
研究组利用Landsat图像的长期记录，创建了1988年至2022年美国连续土地扰动因子的高分辨率（30米）地图。他们发现，在此期间，美国累计有1.7850亿公顷土地受到干扰。人为干扰占总数的65%，由伐木、农业干扰和建筑驱动。他们的分析揭示了人为干扰的广泛减少（59.21平方公里/年）。同时出现补偿激增（20.31千千瓦/年）。不太可控的、无方向性的“野生”干扰（火灾、风/地质灾害和植被压力），占总干扰面积的24%。
干扰状态转移分析发现，尽管人为干扰的频率正在下降，但野生干扰的频率正在加速增加。人为干扰斑块面积呈缩小趋势，而野生干扰斑块面积呈扩大和缩小趋势。美国大部分地区的骚乱严重程度正在上升。他们的发现强调了理解和适应这些不同的干扰轨迹的迫切需要，因其将深刻地塑造美国景观的未来。
附：英文原文
Title: A shift from human-directed to undirected wild land disturbances in the USA
Author: Qiu, Shi, Zhu, Zhe, Yang, Xiucheng, Woodcock, Curtis E., Fahey, Robert T., Stehman, Stephen, Zhang, Yingtong, Cullerton, Mari, Grinstead, Ashley, Hong, Falu, Song, Kexin, Suh, Ji Won, Li, Tian, Ren, Wei, Nemani, Ramakrishna R.
Issue&Volume: 2025-09-18
Abstract: Land disturbances are fundamental drivers of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics, influencing biodiversity, carbon cycling and land–atmosphere interactions. An understanding of changes in their regimes is crucial for predicting future ecosystem trajectories and guiding sustainable land management. Here we leverage the long-term record of Landsat imagery to create high-resolution (30 m) maps of annual land disturbance agents across the contiguous USA from 1988 to 2022. We find that 178.50 million hectares of US land have been cumulatively disturbed over this period. Human-directed disturbances account for 65% of this total, driven by logging, agricultural disturbance and construction. Our analysis reveals a widespread decline in human-directed disturbances (59.21khayr1) alongside a countervailing surge (20.31khayr1) in less controllable, undirected ‘wild’ disturbances (fire, wind/geohazard and vegetation stress), which account for 24% of the total disturbed area. The disturbance regime shift analysis finds that although human-directed disturbances are now declining in frequency, wild disturbance frequencies are increasing at an accelerated pace. The patch size of human-directed disturbances is shrinking, while the wild disturbance patch size shows both expanding and contracting trends. Disturbance severity is rising across most of the USA. Our findings highlight an urgent need to understand and adapt to these diverging disturbance trajectories, as they will profoundly shape the future of US landscapes.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01792-3
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01792-3