近日，美国普林斯顿大学Gabriele Villarini团队研究了热带火山爆发对洪水的全球反应。2025年8月26日出版的《自然—地球科学》杂志发表了这项成果。

高火山爆发指数（≥5）的热带火山喷发对全球气候系统产生影响，但人们对其如何影响洪水知之甚少。

利用火山强迫的全球气候模型模拟和季节性气候驱动因素与峰值流量之间的统计关系，研究组分析了20世纪全球7886个流量表的季节性峰值流量对三次热带爆炸性火山爆发的响应。1963年的阿贡（印度尼西亚）、1902年的圣玛丽亚（危地马拉）和1991年的皮纳图博（菲律宾），它们的平流层气溶胶羽状物主要分布在南半球、北半球，并分别对称地分布在两个半球。对于半球间气溶胶分布不对称的火山喷发，热带地区比非热带地区对火山喷发表现出更直接和更广泛的响应，在发生火山喷发（未发生火山喷发）的半球，火山喷发峰值减少（增加）的半球间对比明显。

在对称气溶胶分布的情况下，热带（干旱）地区通过减少（增加）两个半球的峰值流量来响应火山喷发的趋势最强。这些区域洪水响应主要归因于跨气候区域的季节性降水变化。除了直接的火山灾害之外，该研究还提供了一个关于由大型爆炸性喷发引起的水文气候变化所导致的次生洪水灾害的全球视角。

附：英文原文

Title: Global response of floods to tropical explosive volcanic eruptions

Author: Kim, Hanbeen, Villarini, Gabriele, Yang, Wenchang, Vecchi, Gabriel

Issue&Volume: 2025-08-26

Abstract: Tropical volcanic eruptions with a high volcanic explosivity index (≥5) impact the global climate system, but little is known about how they affect floods. Here, leveraging global climate model simulations with volcanic forcings and statistical relationships between seasonal climate drivers and peak discharge, we investigate the response of seasonal peak discharges at 7,886 streamgauges worldwide to three tropical explosive volcanic eruptions in the twentieth century: Agung 1963 (Indonesia), Santa Maria 1902 (Guatemala) and Pinatubo 1991 (Philippines), whose stratospheric aerosol plumes were distributed primarily in the Southern Hemisphere, primarily in the Northern Hemisphere and symmetrically across both hemispheres, respectively. For the eruptions with interhemispherically asymmetric aerosol distributions, tropical regions show more immediate and widespread responses to the eruptions than non-tropical regions, with a distinct interhemispheric contrast of decreasing (increasing) peak discharges in the hemisphere in which the eruption happened (did not happen). For the case of symmetric aerosol distribution, tropical (arid) regions have the strongest tendency to respond to the eruption by decreasing (increasing) peak discharges in both hemispheres. These regional flood responses are attributed mainly to seasonal precipitation changes across the climate regions. Beyond direct volcanic hazards, our study provides a global view of the secondary flood hazards resulting from hydroclimatic changes induced by large explosive eruptions.

DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01782-5

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01782-5