近日，美国博伊斯州立大学Mojtaba Sadegh团队揭示了尽管被烧毁的面积在减少，但全球人类对野火的暴露程度却在增加。2025年8月21日出版的《科学》杂志发表了这项成果。

虽然地球上一半的人口居住在荒地与城市交界的地方，但人类对荒地火灾的暴露程度仍然无法量化。

研究组发现，从2002年到2021年，全球直接暴露于野火的人口增加了40%，尽管被烧毁的面积减少了26%。暴露量增加的主要原因是野火和人类住区的增加，使每单位燃烧面积的暴露量增加了一倍。研究表明，在4.4亿人次遭遇野火的事件中，人口动态因素所致占比达25%。尽管北美、欧洲和大洋洲的野火灾害引起了最多的关注，但全球85%的野火灾害发生在非洲。按烈度计算的前0.01%的火灾分别占全球暴露量和燃烧面积的0.6%和5%，需要加强努力，提高易发灾害地区的火灾恢复能力。

附：英文原文

Title: Increasing global human exposure to wildland fires despite declining burned area

Author: Seyd Teymoor Seydi, John T. Abatzoglou, Matthew W. Jones, Crystal A. Kolden, Gabriel Filippelli, Matthew D. Hurteau, Amir AghaKouchak, Charles H. Luce, Chiyuan Miao, Mojtaba Sadegh

Issue&Volume: 2025-08-21

Abstract: Although half of Earth’s population resides in the wildland-urban interface, human exposure to wildland fires remains unquantified. We show that the population directly exposed to wildland fires increased 40% globally from 2002 to 2021 despite a 26% decline in burned area. Increased exposure was mainly driven by enhanced colocation of wildland fires and human settlements, doubling the exposure per unit burned area. We show that population dynamics accounted for 25% of the 440 million human exposures to wildland fires. Although wildfire disasters in North America, Europe, and Oceania have garnered the most attention, 85% of global exposures occurred in Africa. The top 0.01% of fires by intensity accounted for 0.6 and 5% of global exposures and burned area, respectively, warranting enhanced efforts to increase fire resilience in disaster-prone regions.

DOI: adu6408

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adu6408