近日，中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所许晨曦团队报道了1568-2021年间东北夏季水文气候变化。相关论文发表在2025年8月19日出版的《中国科学：地球科学》杂志上。

东亚夏季风（EASM）地区近期干湿变化的特征尚不清楚，由于缺乏长期水文气候记录，对人为影响的归因分析受到阻碍。

研究组建立了中国东北地区迄今为止最长的树轮氧同位素年代学（1568-2021），并以其为主题重建了EASM北缘夏季相对湿度（RH）的变化。重建结果表明，东北亚在小冰期（LIA）经历了干燥气候，在暖期（CWP）经历了湿润气候。在百年时间尺度上，自工业革命以来，由温室气体增加引起的变暖似乎加强了东亚季风，并促进了东北亚更加潮湿。

20世纪50年代以来，东北亚地区最近发生的干旱事件与东亚大萧条时期相比并非史无前例。最近的干旱可能受到太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）正相、大西洋多年代际变率（AMV）负相以及人为气溶胶排放的影响。这些发现表明，最近的水文气候变化可能反映了自然强迫机制和相互竞争的人为影响之间的复杂相互作用，变暖引起的东亚季风增强可能会缓和原本更严重的干旱条件。

附：英文原文

Title: Summer hydroclimate variations in Northeast China during the period of 1568–2021

Author: Yucheng LIU, Wenling AN, Zhipeng WU, Chenxi XU, Zhengtang GUO

Issue&Volume: 2025/08/19

Abstract: The causes of recent dry-wet changes in the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) area remain unclear, and attribution analysis to anthropogenic influences is hindered by the lack of long-term hydroclimate record. In this study, we build up a tree ring oxygen isotope chronology in Northeast China, which is the longest to date (1568–2021), and use it to reconstruct summer relative humidity (RH) variations in the northern edge of the EASM region. The reconstruction reveals that Northeast Asia experienced dry conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA), followed by wet conditions in the Current Warm Period (CWP). On the centennial timescale, the warming caused by the increased greenhouse gases since the Industrial Revolution appears to have strengthened the EASM and facilitated a more humid Northeast Asia. Recent drought events in Northeast Asia since the 1950s are not unprecedented compared with those during the LIA. Recent drought is likely influenced by the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), and anthropogenic aerosol emissions. These findings suggest that recent hydroclimate variations likely reflect a complex interplay between natural forcing mechanisms and competing anthropogenic influences, with warming-induced EASM strengthening potentially moderating what would otherwise be more severe drought conditions.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-025-1579-3

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/SCES/doi/10.1007/s11430-025-1579-3