加拿大滑铁卢大学Qing-Bin Lu团队近日实现了宇宙射线驱动的电子诱导反应理论量化了平流层低层臭氧和温度的时空变化。2025年7月1日，《美国科学院院刊》杂志发表了这项成果。

宇宙射线（CR）在影响行星和星际气候和环境方面发挥着重要作用。研究组应用CR驱动的电子诱导反应（CRE）理论来定量了解地球平流层下层臭氧（LSO）和温度的时空变化，为臭氧消耗的机制提供指纹，并研究非卤素温室气体对臭氧层的影响。他们首先从观测中表明，LSO和温度在南极洲和中纬度地区都显示出明显的11-y周期变化，而在热带地区则表现出微弱的（没有明显的）周期变化。这些观察结果与CRE理论的预测一致。 

其次，该无参数CRE理论计算给出了臭氧损失的垂直分布图，与南极Syowa站的观测结果完全一致，并很好地再现了极地、中纬度和热带地区LSO和温度的时间序列变化，包括之前报道的热带平流层下部臭氧大量消耗。研究结果还表明，LSO和温度仅受CR和臭氧消耗物质（ODS）的控制。此外，CRE计算在LSO和温度的未来趋势中表现出复杂的现象，这些现象受到CR通量未来趋势的强烈影响。后者甚至可能导致南极洲上空的臭氧空洞几乎没有恢复，到2100年热带地区也不会恢复到1980年的水平。这项研究大大提高了对全球平流层下部臭氧消耗和气候的定量理解，并对未来趋势进行了预测。

附：英文原文

Title: Cosmic ray–driven electron-induced reaction theory quantifies spatiotemporal variations in lower-stratospheric ozone and temperature

Author: Lu, Qing-Bin

Issue&Volume: 2025-7-1

Abstract: Cosmic rays (CRs) play an important role in affecting planetary and interstellar climate and environment. Here, we apply the CR–driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) theory of ozone depletion to obtain a quantitative understanding of spatiotemporal variations in Earth’s lower-stratospheric ozone (LSO) and temperature, which provide fingerprints for the mechanisms of ozone depletion and examine the impact of nonhalogen greenhouse gases on the ozone layer. We first show from observations that both LSO and temperature display pronounced 11-y cyclic variations over Antarctica and mid-latitudes, while weak (no apparent) cyclic variations over the tropics. These observations are consistent with the prediction by the CRE theory. Second, our no-parameter CRE theoretical calculations give the vertical profile of ozone loss in perfect agreement with observations at the Antarctic Syowa station and reproduce well the time-series variations of both LSO and temperature in the polar, mid-latitude, and tropical regions, including the previously reported large ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere over the tropics. The results also demonstrate that both LSO and temperature are controlled by CRs and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) only. Moreover, CRE calculations exhibit complex phenomena in future trends of LSO and temperature, which are strongly affected by the future trend of CR fluxes. The latter might even lead to almost no recovery of the ozone hole over Antarctica and no returning to the 1980 level over the tropics by 2100. This study greatly improves quantitative understanding of ozone depletion and climate in the global lower stratosphere and offers predictions on future trends.

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2506469122

Source: https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2506469122