近日，美国宾夕法尼亚大学Michael E. Mann团队揭示最强的飓风正在加剧。这一研究成果于2025年7月14日发表在《美国科学院院刊》杂志上。

东北风是一种沿海温带气旋，它以热对比（经向和陆-海）和海洋潜热释放为基础，引导它们沿着美国东海岸加强。由于中心压力有时可与热带气旋相媲美，它们对沿海地区构成重大威胁，通常伴有强风、大雪、扰乱和破坏。虽然人们对研究气候变化对风暴行为的影响的兴趣越来越大，但历史上，东北风受到的关注远不如热带气旋，这主要是由于在记录和分类这些风暴方面存在挑战，同时观测记录相对较短。

为了应对这些挑战，研究组采用了气旋跟踪方法，并结合长期再分析数据，创建了这些风暴的可靠历史数据库。研究组发现最强烈的（第66百分位）东北风的最大风速有显著增加的趋势。他们还观察到与这些风暴相关的高降水率呈增加趋势。这些变化对沿海城市和海岸线有着深远的影响，增加了沿海洪水和侵蚀的风险。

附：英文原文

Title: The intensification of the strongest nor’easters

Author: Chen, Kevin, Li, Xueke, Weaver, Mackenzie M., Christiansen, Shannon A., Horton, Annabelle L., Mann, Michael E.

Issue&Volume: 2025-7-14

Abstract: Nor’easters are coastal extratropical cyclones that feed upon both thermal contrasts (meridional and land-ocean) and oceanic latent heat release, causing them to intensify along the U.S. East Coast. With central pressures that sometimes rival those of tropical cyclones, they represent a significant coastal hazard and are often associated with strong winds, heavy snowfall, disruption, and damage. While interest in studying the impacts of climate change on storm behavior is growing, nor’easters have historically received far less attention than tropical cyclones, largely due to challenges in documenting and categorizing these storms combined with the relatively short observational record. Here, we address these challenges by employing a cyclone tracking approach in concurrence with long-term reanalysis data to create a reliable historical database of these storms. We find a significant increasing trend in the maximum wind speeds of the most intense (>66th percentile) nor’easters. We also observe an increasing trend in hourly precipitation rates associated with these storms. Such changes have profound implications for coastal cities and shorelines, increasing the risk of coastal flooding and erosion.

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2510029122

Source: https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2510029122