近日，北京大学胡建信团队研究了2011-2021年中国消耗臭氧层的四氯化碳的持续排放。该研究于2025年6月23日发表在《自然—地球科学》杂志上。
全球四氯化碳（CCl4）的持续排放正在减缓臭氧层的恢复。基于观测到的大气摩尔分数和逆建模（自上而下）对全球四氯化碳排放量的估计比已知来源（自下而上）的排放量高出约30-40%。研究组使用来自中国各地的站点网络的长期大气观测和自上而下的方法，得出了2011-2021年中国的四氯化碳排放量。
2011年至2021年，中国的四氯化碳年平均排放量约为16 Gg/年和25 Gg/年，远大于之前自2011年以来的中国自下而上的库存（不到6 Gg/年） 。以臭氧消耗潜能值（ODP）加权排放量表示，中国的四氯化碳年排放量与2013-2018年全球“意外”的三氯氟甲烷（CFC-11）年排放量或2020年全球氟氯烃年总排放量相当。
2011至2020年期间，中国的四氯化碳排放量约占报告的全球总量的一半，在此期间均未显示出明显的下降趋势。在2013年至2018年期间，中国因允许的原料使用、CFC-11的重新生产以及副生产而产生的大量四氯化碳排放可能会缩小一些排放差距。然而，2011年至2021年，中国四氯化碳排放量约4-15 Gg/年仍无法解释，可能占全球剩余差距的一半以上。
附：英文原文
Title: Persistent emissions of ozone-depleting carbon tetrachloride from China during 2011–2021
Author: An, Minde, Yao, Bo, Western, Luke M., Prinn, Ronald G., Zhao, Xingchen, Hu, Jianxin, Mhle, Jens, Reimann, Stefan, Vollmer, Martin K., Harth, Christina M., ODoherty, Simon, Weiss, Ray F., Chi, Wenxue, Xu, Honghui, Yu, Yan, Ganesan, Anita L., Rigby, Matthew
Issue&Volume: 2025-06-23
Abstract: Lingering global emissions of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) are slowing ozone layer recovery. Estimates of global CCl4 emissions based on observed atmospheric mole fractions and inverse modelling (top down) exceed the emissions derived from known sources (bottom up) by ~30–40%. Here we derived CCl4 emissions from China for 2011–2021 using long-term atmospheric observations from a network of sites from across China and a top-down approach. Mean annual CCl4 emissions in China during 2011–2021 were between approximately 16 Ggyr1 and 25Ggyr1, substantially larger than previous bottom-up inventories for China of less than 6Ggyr1 since 2011. Expressed in terms of ozone depletion potential (ODP)-weighted emissions, CCl4 annual emissions from China are comparable to global annual ‘unexpected’ trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) emissions during 2013–2018, or global total annual hydrochlorofluorocarbon emissions in 2020. The CCl4 emissions from China accounted for approximately half of the reported global total during 2011–2020, with neither showing a significant decreasing trend during this period. Substantial CCl4 emissions in China from allowed feedstock use, during the renewed production of CFC-11 between 2013 and 2018, and from by-production could close some of the emissions gap. However, ~4–15Ggyr1 of CCl4 emissions in China remain unexplained during 2011–2021, potentially accounting for more than half of the remaining global gap.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01721-4
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01721-4