CICERO国际气候研究中心Gunnar Myhre团队揭示观测到的地球能量不平衡趋势可能为低气候敏感性模式提供约束。2025年6月12日出版的《科学》杂志发表了这项成果。

温室气体和气溶胶的气候强迫导致大气层顶部净入射太阳辐射和地球出射长波辐射之间的不平衡。在2001年至2023年期间，卫星数据加剧了地球能源的不平衡。研究组表明，低气候敏感性模型无法再现地球能量不平衡的趋势，特别是在个人长波和短波对不平衡趋势的贡献方面。 

在低气候敏感性模型中，无法产生强烈的正短波和强负长波地球能量不平衡趋势是一个稳健的特征，特别是对于气候敏感性低于2.5 K的模型。对地球能量不平衡的负长波贡献是由地表温度升高驱动的，因此在高气候敏感性模型中最为明显，而短波贡献通常是正的，并因地表变暖而放大。

附：英文原文

Title: Observed trend in Earth energy imbalance may provide a constraint for low climate sensitivity models

Author: Gunnar Myhre, ivind Hodnebrog, Norman Loeb, Piers M. Forster

Issue&Volume: 2025-06-12

Abstract: Climate forcings by greenhouse gases and aerosols cause an imbalance at the top of the atmosphere between the net incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation from Earth. This Earth energy imbalance has strengthened over the period 2001 to 2023 with satellite data. Here, we show that low climate sensitivity models fail to reproduce the trend in Earth energy imbalance, particularly in the individual longwave and shortwave contributions to the imbalance trend. The inability to produce a strong positive shortwave and strong negative longwave Earth energy imbalance trend is found to be a robust feature in the low climate sensitivity models, especially for models with a climate sensitivity below 2.5 kelvin. The negative longwave contribution to Earth energy imbalance is driven by surface temperature increases and is therefore most pronounced in high climate sensitivity models, whereas the shortwave contribution is generally positive and amplified by greater surface warming.

DOI: adt0647

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adt0647