美国科罗拉多州立大学Senne Van Loon团队研究了基于观测的地球有效辐射强迫估计。该成果发表在2025年6月10日出版的《美国科学院院刊》杂志上。
人类排放继续影响着地球的气候。有效的辐射强迫量化了这种人为排放和自然因素对地球能量平衡的影响。评估有效辐射强迫的确切速率具有挑战性，因为它无法直接观测到。因此，估计有效强迫通常依赖于气候模型。研究组提出了一个有效辐射强迫的估计，该估计充分利用了观测结果。他们使用机器学习来学习多模型集成中由内部变异引起的表面温度和辐射之间的关系。
结合对地表温度和地球净辐射不平衡的观测，研究组预测2001-2024年的有效强迫趋势为每十年0.71±0.21 Wm−2。这是对1985年以来观测到的有效辐射强迫的独立评估，可以与现有观测同时更新，并与对辐射反馈的物理理解相一致。研究组通过将强迫的影响与地表温度变化的辐射响应分开，在年度时间尺度上关闭地球的能量预算方面取得了进展。自2021年以来，有效辐射强迫大幅增加，直到2024年才被强烈的负辐射响应所抵消，这与2023年和2024年的异常温暖是一致的。
附：英文原文
Title: Observation-based estimate of Earth’s effective radiative forcing
Author: Van Loon, Senne, Rugenstein, Maria, Barnes, Elizabeth A.
Issue&Volume: 2025-6-10
Abstract: Human emissions continue to influence Earth’s climate. Effective radiative forcing quantifies the effect of such anthropogenic emissions together with natural factors on Earth’s energy balance. Evaluating the exact rate of effective radiative forcing is challenging, because it can not be directly observed. Therefore, estimating the effective forcing usually relies on climate models. Here, we present an estimate of effective radiative forcing that makes optimal use of observations. We use machine learning to learn the relationship between surface temperature and radiation caused by internal variability in a multimodel ensemble. Combining this with observations of surface temperature and the Earth’s net radiative imbalance, we predict an effective forcing trend of 0.71 ± 0.21 Wm-2 per decade for 2001–2024. This is an independent assessment of the observed effective radiative forcing since 1985, that can be updated simultaneously with available observations and aligns with our physical understanding of radiative feedbacks. We make advances to close the Earth’s energy budget on annual timescales, by separating the influence of forcing versus the radiative response to surface temperature variations. Effective radiative forcing has substantially increased since 2021 and has not been countered by a strongly negative radiative response until 2024, consistent with exceptional warmth in 2023 and 2024.
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2425445122
Source: https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2425445122