德国马克斯·普朗克气象研究所Sarah M. Kang团队揭示了随着未来南大洋变暖，东亚和美国西部的降水量预计会增加。相关论文于2025年4月2日发表在《自然—地球科学》杂志上。

预计东亚和美国西部的降水量将因全球变暖而增加，尽管其幅度仍存在很大的不确定性。驱动这些不确定性的一个关键因素是热带表面变暖模式，但这种变暖模式及其导致的区域降水变化背后的机制仍然难以捉摸。

研究组使用一组气候模型实验来证明，这些变化部分是由南大洋的全球遥相关引起的，南大洋迅速吸收人为热量，但释放热量的时间延迟了几十年到一个世纪。他们发现，南大洋的延迟变暖导致了类似厄尔尼诺现象的广泛热带海洋变暖，增加了东亚夏季和美国西部冬季的降水。

热带海洋的大气遥相关将南大洋变暖与北半球区域湿润联系起来。南半球低云是这种遥相关的关键调节器，部分解释了区域降水的预测不确定性。有记录的遥相关具有实际意义：即使气候缓解措施降低了二氧化碳水平，南大洋变暖的延迟也将使东亚和美国西部持续湿润几十年到几个世纪。

附：英文原文

Title: Higher precipitation in East Asia and western United States expected with future Southern Ocean warming

Author: Kim, Hanjun, Kang, Sarah M., Pendergrass, Angeline G., Lehner, Flavio, Shin, Yechul, Ceppi, Paulo, Yeh, Sang-Wook, Song, Se-Yong

Issue&Volume: 2025-04-02

Abstract: Precipitation over East Asia and the western United States is projected to increase as a result of global warming, although substantial uncertainties persist regarding the magnitude. A key factor driving these uncertainties is the tropical surface warming pattern, yet the mechanisms behind both this warming pattern and the resulting regional precipitation changes remain elusive. Here we use a set of climate model experiments to argue that these changes are partly driven by global teleconnection from the Southern Ocean, which rapidly absorbs anthropogenic heat but releases it with a delay of decades to a century. We show that the delayed Southern Ocean warming contributes to broad tropical ocean warming with an El Nio-like pattern, enhancing precipitation during summer in East Asia and winter in the western United States. The atmospheric teleconnections from the tropical ocean link the Southern Ocean warming to the Northern Hemisphere regional wetting. Southern Hemisphere low clouds are a key regulator of this teleconnection, partly explaining the projected uncertainty of regional precipitation. The documented teleconnection has practical implications: even if climate mitigation reduces carbon dioxide levels, the delayed Southern Ocean warming will sustain a wetter East Asia and western United States for decades to centuries.

DOI: 10.1038/s41561-025-01669-5

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-025-01669-5