武汉大学陈杰团队研究了2000-2022年青藏高原湖面温度变化及其驱动因素。2025年4月2日出版的《中国科学：地球科学》杂志发表了该成果。

湖泊表面温度（LST）是调节区域水碳循环和生物过程的关键参数，在湖泊的能量和质量平衡中起着至关重要的作用。青藏高原（TP）拥有数千个湖泊，对气候变化高度敏感。因此，这些湖泊对气候变暖的反应对于“亚洲水塔”的水安全和生态稳定至关重要。然而，过去二十年来LST的长期趋势及其对TP的驱动因素尚不清楚。

研究组采用全天候陆地表面温度数据集和代表性湖泊方法来研究2000年至2022年TP上LST的年际趋势。该分析使用了519至581个湖泊的温度数据，这些湖泊的表面积具有年际动态变化。结果表明，TP上的湖泊总体呈变暖趋势，平均升温速率为0.10±0.27°C（10a）^-1。在具有代表性的湖泊中，61%显示出变暖趋势。最显著的变暖发生在秋季，91%的代表性湖泊的LST增加（0.47±0.30°C（10a）^-1）。

春季的变暖速度大约是秋季的一半。在冬季，LST趋势呈现出两极分化的模式：尽管一些湖泊经历了显著的变暖，但超过一半的湖泊表现出强烈的降温。夏季LST变化趋势较其他季节温和。湖冰持续时间减少的积极反馈推动了TP的LST趋势。湖冰持续时间每10天减少一次，年LST增加0.4°C。此外，海拔和湖泊扩张也会影响LST的变化。低海拔地区的湖泊通常会经历更高的变暖趋势。湖泊扩张会通过增强热惯性和延缓湖泊冻结来加剧秋季湖泊变暖。

附：英文原文

Title: Changes in lake surface temperature on the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2022 and their driving factors

Author: Yuanlin QIU, Jie CHEN, Deliang CHEN

Issue&Volume: 2025/04/02

Abstract: Lake surface temperature (LST) is a key parameter in regulating regional water-carbon cycles and biological processes, playing a critical role in the energy and mass balance of lakes. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is home to thousands of lakes and is highly sensitive to climate change. Therefore, the response of these lakes to a warming climate is crucial for the water security and ecological stability of the “Asian Water Tower”. However, the long-term trend of LST and its driving factors on the TP over the past two decades remain unclear. Here, we employ an all-weather land surface temperature dataset and a representative lake method to investigate the interannual trend of LST on the TP from 2000 to 2022. The analysis uses temperature data from 519 to 581 lakes with interannual dynamic changes in surface area. The results show that lakes on the TP exhibit an overall warming trend, with an average rate of 0.10±0.27°C(10a)1. Among the representative lakes, 61% show a warming trend. The most significant warming occurs in autumn, with 91% of the representative lakes showing an increase in LST (0.47±0.30°C(10a)1). The warming rate in spring is about half of that in autumn. In winter, the LST trend exhibits a polarized pattern: although some lakes experience significant warming, more than half show intense cooling. In summer, the trend of LST change is more moderate than that in other seasons. The positive feedback from the reduction in lake ice duration drives the LST trend on the TP. The lake ice duration reduces every 10-day, the annual LST increases 0.4°C. Additionally, altitude and lake expansion can also influence LST changes. Lakes at lower altitudes generally experience higher warming trends. Lake expansion can exacerbate lake warming in autumn by enhancing thermal inertia and delaying lake freeze-up.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-024-1527-4

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/SCES/doi/10.1007/s11430-024-1527-4