首都医科大学冯涛研究小组提出，2050年前195个国家和地区帕金森病流行率及其驱动因素的预测：2021年全球疾病负担研究的建模分析。相关论文于2025年3月5日发表在《英国医学杂志》上。

目的:以年龄、性别、年份和社会人口指数预测到2050年全球、地区和国家帕金森病的患病率，并量化驱动帕金森病病例变化的因素。

设计:造型研究。

数据来源全球疾病负担研究2021。

主要结果测量为2050年帕金森病的流行人数、全年龄患病率和年龄标准化患病率，以及2021 - 2050年的平均年患病率变化百分比；人口老龄化、人口增长和患病率变化对帕金森病病例增长的贡献；可改变因素的人口归因分数。

结果:预计到2050年，全世界将有252万人（95%不确定区间为2170万至3010万）患有帕金森病，比2021年增加112%（95%不确定区间为71%至152%）。预计人口老龄化（89%）将是2021年至2050年病例增长的主要因素，其次是人口增长（20%）和患病率变化（3%）。帕金森病的患病率预计为每100人267例（230 - 320例）。到2050年，这表明与2021年相比显著增加了76%(56%至125%)，而年龄标准化患病率预计为216(168至281)/ 100从2021年起增加55%（50%到60%）。预计在2021年至2050年期间，社会人口指数中处于中间五分之一的国家帕金森病的所有年龄患病率（144%，87%至183%）和年龄标准化患病率（91%，82%至101%）的增长百分比最高。在全球疾病负担区域中，预计2050年东亚（1090万（900万至1330万））帕金森病病例数最多，从2021年起撒哈拉以南非洲西部（292%，266%至362%）将出现最显著的增长。预计从2021年到2050年，≥80岁年龄组帕金森病病例数增幅最大（196%，143%至235%）。预计全球帕金森病年龄标准化患病率的男女比例将从2021年的1.46增加到2050年的1.64。

研究结果表明，到2050年，帕金森氏症将成为患者、家属、护理人员、社区和社会面临的一个更大的公共卫生挑战。预计上升趋势在社会人口指数中等的国家、全球疾病负担东亚区域和男性中更为明显。这一预测可有助于促进卫生研究、为决策提供信息和分配资源。

附：英文原文

Title: Projections for prevalence of Parkinson’s disease and its driving factors in 195 countries and territories to 2050: modelling study of Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Author: Dongning Su, Yusha Cui, Chengzhang He, Peng Yin, Ruhai Bai, Jinqiao Zhu, Joyce S T Lam, Junjiao Zhang, Rui Yan, Xiaoqing Zheng, Jiayi Wu, Dong Zhao, Anxin Wang, Maigeng Zhou, Tao Feng

Issue&Volume: 2025/03/05

Abstract: Objective To predict the global, regional, and national prevalence of Parkinson’s disease by age, sex, year, and Socio-demographic Index to 2050 and quantify the factors driving changes in Parkinson’s disease cases.

Design Modelling study.

Data source Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Main outcome measures Prevalent number, all age prevalence and age standardised prevalence of Parkinson’s disease in 2050, and average annual percentage change of prevalence from 2021 to 2050; contribution of population ageing, population growth, and changes in prevalence to the growth in Parkinson’s disease cases; population attributable fractions for modifiable factors.

Results 25.2 (95% uncertainty interval 21.7 to 30.1) million people were projected to be living with Parkinson’s disease worldwide in 2050, representing a 112% (95% uncertainty interval 71% to 152%) increase from 2021. Population ageing (89%) was predicted to be the primary contributor to the growth in cases from 2021 to 2050, followed by population growth (20%) and changes in prevalence (3%). The prevalence of Parkinson’s disease was forecasted to be 267 (230 to 320) cases per 100000 in 2050, indicating a significant increase of 76% (56% to 125%) from 2021, whereas the age standardised prevalence was predicted to be 216 (168 to 281) per 100000, with an increase of 55% (50% to 60%) from 2021. Countries in the middle fifth of Socio-demographic Index were projected to have the highest percentage increase in the all age prevalence (144%, 87% to 183%) and age standardised prevalence (91%, 82% to 101%) of Parkinson’s disease between 2021 and 2050. Among Global Burden of Disease regions, East Asia (10.9 (9.0 to 13.3) million) was projected to have the highest number of Parkinson’s disease cases in 2050, with western Sub-Saharan Africa (292%, 266% to 362%) experiencing the most significant increase from 2021. The ≥80 years age group was projected to have the greatest increase in the number of Parkinson’s disease cases (196%, 143% to 235%) from 2021 to 2050. The male-to-female ratios of age standardised prevalence of Parkinson’s disease were projected to increase from 1.46 in 2021 to 1.64 in 2050 globally.

Conclusions By 2050 Parkinson’s disease will have become a greater public health challenge for patients, their families, care givers, communities, and society. The upward trend is expected to be more pronounced among countries with middle Socio-demographic Index, in the Global Burden of Disease East Asia region, and among men. This projection could serve as an aid in promoting health research, informing policy decisions, and allocating resources.

DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2024-080952

Source: https://www.bmj.com/content/388/bmj-2024-080952