美国麻省理工学院Peidong Wang团队研究了南极臭氧恢复的指纹识别。2025年3月5日出版的《自然》杂志发表了这项成果。

南极臭氧“空洞”于1985年被发现，人为消耗臭氧层物质（ODSs）是其主要原因。在《蒙特利尔议定书》下减少消耗臭氧层物质后，根据观测和广泛但令人信服的模型数据比较，人们报告了臭氧恢复的迹象。尽管这些方法非常有价值，但在存在内部气候变化的情况下，它们并不能对南极臭氧恢复的时间和空间结构进行严格的统计检测。

研究组应用了气候变化研究中使用的基于模式的检测和归因方法，将人为强迫的臭氧反应与内部变异分开，依靠作为月份和高度函数的趋势模式信息。该分析使用卫星观测以及单模型和多模型集成模拟来识别和量化南极臭氧恢复的月高“指纹”。他们证明，数据和模拟表明，自2005年以来，臭氧对消耗臭氧层物质减少的反应指纹模式令人信服。同时还表明，消耗臭氧层物质的强迫作用增强了南半球春季的臭氧内部变化，影响了强迫反应的检测及其出现时间。

该研究结果提供了强有力的统计和物理证据，表明根据《蒙特利尔议定书》采取的减少消耗臭氧层物质的行动确实导致了南极臭氧恢复的开始，即臭氧的增加与预期的月高模式一致。

附：英文原文

Title: Fingerprinting the recovery of Antarctic ozone

Author: Wang, Peidong, Solomon, Susan, Santer, Benjamin D., Kinnison, Douglas E., Fu, Qiang, Stone, Kane A., Zhang, Jun, Manney, Gloria L., Milln, Luis F.

Issue&Volume: 2025-03-05

Abstract: The Antarctic ozone ‘hole’ was discovered in 1985 (ref.1) and man-made ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) are its primary cause2. Following reductions of ODSs under the Montreal Protocol3, signs of ozone recovery have been reported, based largely on observations and broad yet compelling model–data comparisons4. Although such approaches are highly valuable, they do not provide rigorous statistical detection of the temporal and spatial structure of Antarctic ozone recovery in the presence of internal climate variability. Here we apply pattern-based detection and attribution methods as used in climate-change studies5,6,7,8,9,10,11 to separate anthropogenically forced ozone responses from internal variability, relying on trend pattern information as a function of month and height. The analysis uses satellite observations together with single-model and multi-model ensemble simulations to identify and quantify the month–height Antarctic ozone recovery ‘fingerprint’12. We demonstrate that the data and simulations show compelling agreement in the fingerprint pattern of the ozone response to decreasing ODSs since 2005. We also show that ODS forcing has enhanced ozone internal variability during the austral spring, influencing detection of forced responses and their time of emergence. Our results provide robust statistical and physical evidence that actions taken under the Montreal Protocol to reduce ODSs are indeed resulting in the beginning of Antarctic ozone recovery, defined as increases in ozone consistent with expected month–height patterns.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08640-9

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08640-9