澳大利亚墨尔本大学Dongryeol Ryu团队发现海平面的突然上升和地球的逐渐极移揭示了21世纪永久的水文状况变化。该研究于2025年3月28日发表在《科学》杂志上。

大气和海洋温度的上升导致了陆地水循环和陆地地表水通量的实质性变化，如降水和蒸散，可能导致陆地储水量的突然变化。欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）再分析v5（ERA5）土壤水分（SM）产品显示，21世纪初土壤水分急剧减少。

在2000年至2002年期间，土壤湿度下降了约1614亿吨，远大于格陵兰岛约9000亿吨的冰损失（2002-2006年）。从2003年到2016年，SM的消耗仍在继续，额外损失了1009亿吨。这种消耗得到了全球平均海平面上升（~4.4毫米）和地球极移（~45厘米）的两次独立观测的支持。降水不足和稳定的蒸散发量可能导致了这一下降，截至2021年，SM尚未恢复，在目前的气候条件下，未来不太可能恢复。

附：英文原文

Title: Abrupt sea level rise and Earth’s gradual pole shift reveal permanent hydrological regime changes in the 21st century

Author: Ki-Weon Seo, Dongryeol Ryu, Taehwan Jeon, Kookhyoun Youm, Jae-Seung Kim, Earthu H. Oh, Jianli Chen, James S. Famiglietti, Clark R. Wilson

Issue&Volume: 2025-03-28

Abstract: Rising atmospheric and ocean temperatures have caused substantial changes in terrestrial water circulation and land surface water fluxes, such as precipitation and evapotranspiration, potentially leading to abrupt shifts in terrestrial water storage. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) soil moisture (SM) product reveals a sharp depletion during the early 21st century. During the period 2000 to 2002, soil moisture declined by approximately 1614 gigatonnes, much larger than Greenland’s ice loss of about 900 gigatonnes (2002–2006). From 2003 to 2016, SM depletion continued, with an additional 1009-gigatonne loss. This depletion is supported by two independent observations of global mean sea level rise (~4.4 millimeters) and Earth’s pole shift (~45 centimeters). Precipitation deficits and stable evapotranspiration likely caused this decline, and SM has not recovered as of 2021, with future recovery unlikely under present climate conditions.

DOI: adq6529

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adq6529