瑞士伯尔尼大学Jens Terhaar团队研究了2023~2024年创纪录的海面温度跃升，发现概率很低，但并不意外。2025年3月12日出版的《自然》杂志发表了这项成果。

从2023年4月开始，全球海洋表面温度在一年多的时间里处于创纪录的水平，在2023年4月份至2024年3月期间，平均比2015~2016年的记录高出0.25°C。这一事件的全球范围和前所未有的强度引发了人们的质疑，即气候模型是否可以代表地表海洋温度的这种破纪录的跳跃。

研究组构建了基于观测的合成时间序列，以表明全球海面温度的跃升至少打破了之前的记录0.25℃ ，在当前的长期变暖趋势下，这是一个512年一遇的事件（205年一遇至1185年一遇；95%置信区间）。如果没有全球变暖的趋势，这样的事件几乎是不可能的。

通过使用来自各种全耦合气候模型的270个模型，研究组表明这些模型成功地模拟了全球海洋表面温度的这种破纪录的跳跃，从而支持了这些模型在理解此类事件的特征、驱动因素和后果方面的有用性。这些模型模拟表明，2023~2024年表层海洋温度的破纪录跳跃是一个极端事件，之后表层海洋温度预计将恢复到预期的长期变暖趋势。

附：英文原文

Title: Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected

Author: Terhaar, Jens, Burger, Friedrich A., Vogt, Linus, Frlicher, Thomas L., Stocker, Thomas F.

Issue&Volume: 2025-03-12

Abstract: Global ocean surface temperatures were at record levels for more than a year from April 2023 onwards, exceeding the previous record in 2015–2016 by 0.25°C on average between April 2023 and March 20241. The nearly global extent and unprecedented intensity of this event prompted questions about how exceptional it was and whether climate models can represent such record-shattering jumps in surface ocean temperatures2. Here we construct observation-based synthetic time series to show that a jump in global sea surface temperatures that breaks the previous record by at least 0.25°C is a 1-in-512-year event under the current long-term warming trend (1-in-205-year to 1-in-1,185-year event; 95% confidence interval). Without a global warming trend, such an event would have been practically impossible. Using 270 simulations from a wide range of fully coupled climate models, we show that these models successfully simulate such record-shattering jumps in global ocean surface temperatures, underpinning the models’ usefulness in understanding the characteristics, drivers and consequences of such events. These model simulations suggest that the record-shattering jump in surface ocean temperatures in 2023–2024 was an extreme event after which surface ocean temperatures are expected to revert to the expected long-term warming trend.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08674-z

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08674-z