奥地利气候影响研究部Klaus Haslinger团队发现奥地利每小时暴雨增加反映在洪水变化上。该项研究成果发表在2025年3月12日出版的《自然》杂志上。

气候变化预计将增加强降雨，同时洪水也会增加。暴雨增加的原因包括大气变暖的持水能力提高和大气环流模式的变化，这可能导致欧洲大部分地区未来暴雨增加。然而，数据限制和测量不确定性阻碍了收集过去变化时间演变的证据，特别是对于如1小时的短降雨持续时间。

研究组通过分析1900年至2023年奥地利883个站点的新数据集，显示了过去四十年来每日暴雨增加了8%，每小时暴雨增加了15%。这些增长在两个独立的网络之间是完全一致的，并且发生在1960年至1980年的减速阶段之后。每小时的强降雨变化与温度升高相一致，每升高1°C，敏感性增加7%，符合克劳修斯-克拉珀龙标度。

然而，每日的强降雨变化与大气环流指数一致，与气温相关性很小，这表明大气环流模式的作用比以前认为的要大。日暴雨变化与大流域观测到的约8%的洪水增加非常一致。每小时的强降雨变化与小流域的洪水变化相似，尽管洪水增加幅度更大（过去四十年增加了25%）。因此，对于集水区较小的河流，洪水管理中的气候适应措施可能比大河更为紧迫。

附：英文原文

Title: Increasing hourly heavy rainfall in Austria reflected in flood changes

Author: Haslinger, Klaus, Breinl, Korbinian, Pavlin, Lovrenc, Pistotnik, Georg, Bertola, Miriam, Olefs, Marc, Greilinger, Marion, Schner, Wolfgang, Blschl, Gnter

Issue&Volume: 2025-03-12

Abstract: Climate change is expected to increase heavy rainfall with concomitant increases in flooding1. Causes of increased heavy rainfall include the higher water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns2, which may translate into future heavy rainfall increases in most of Europe3. However, gathering evidence on the time evolution of past changes has been hampered by data limitations and measurement uncertainties, in particular for short rainfall durations, such as 1h. Here we show an 8% increase in daily and 15% increase in hourly heavy rainfall over the last four decades by analysing a new dataset comprising 883 stations in Austria from 1900 to 2023. These increases are fully consistent between two independent networks and occurred after a retarding phase between 1960 and 1980. Hourly heavy rainfall changes are aligned with temperature increases with the sensitivity of a 7% increase per 1°C of warming, in line with Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. Daily heavy rainfall changes, however, are aligned with atmospheric circulation indices with little correlation to air temperature, which suggests a bigger role of atmospheric circulation modes than previously thought. The daily heavy rainfall changes are remarkably consistent with observed flood increases of about 8% in large catchments. The hourly heavy rainfall changes are similarly consistent with flood changes in small catchments, although the flood increase is stronger (25% over the last four decades). Climate adaptation measures in flood management may therefore be more pressing for rivers draining smaller catchment areas than for large rivers.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-08647-2

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08647-2