近日，中国科学院大气物理研究所成里京团队研究了过去60年观测到的大尺度和深层复合海洋状态变化。这一研究成果于2025年11月25日发表在《自然—气候变化》杂志上。

多重气候相关压力因素正影响海洋系统，包括变暖、酸化、脱氧及盐度变化等，对地球系统循环、海洋生态系统和人类福祉产生深远影响。然而，这些变化对表层与次表层海洋条件的综合影响尚未形成清晰的全球视角。

研究组通过将“出现时间法”应用于观测到的物理与生物地球化学变量（统称为复合气候影响驱动因素），发现过去60年间，单一及复合海洋状态变化在全球范围内日益显著。观测数据显示，亚热带和热带大西洋、亚热带太平洋、阿拉伯海及地中海等区域已同步出现复合气候影响驱动因素。研究特别指出，不同海洋层对复合因素的暴露程度广泛，其强度、持续时间和幅度均显著。这些结果为阐述海洋在气候变暖背景下面临的普遍性、互联性变化提供了系统框架与全新视角。

附：英文原文

Title: Observed large-scale and deep-reaching compound ocean state changes over the past 60 years

Author: Tan, Zhetao, von Schuckmann, Karina, Speich, Sabrina, Bopp, Laurent, Zhu, Jiang, Cheng, Lijing

Issue&Volume: 2025-11-25

Abstract: Multiple climate-related stressors affect the ocean, including warming, acidification, deoxygenation and variations in salinity, with profound effects on Earth system cycles, marine ecosystems and human well-being. Nevertheless, a global perspective on the combined impacts of these changes on both surface and subsurface ocean conditions remains unclear. Here, applying a time-of-emergence methodology to observed physical and biogeochemical variables, collectively referred to as compound climatic impact-drivers, we show individual and compound ocean state changes have become increasingly prominent globally over the past 60years. In particular, observations show the simultaneous emergence of compound climatic impact-drivers in regions spanning the subtropical and tropical Atlantic, the subtropical Pacific, the Arabian Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. We highlight extensive exposure of different ocean layers to compound emergence, characterized by significant intensity, duration and magnitude. These results provide a comprehensive framework and perspective to illustrate the ocean’s vulnerability to pervasive and interconnected changes in a warming climate.

DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02484-x

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02484-x