近日，意大利国家地质与火山研究所Marco Firetto Carlino团队报道了埃特纳火山的地震频率-震级分布揭示了火山管道系统中的岩浆上升
在人口密集地区的活火山通常是通过地质观测、地球物理和地球化学数据来监测的，这些数据提供了在最上面的火山口岩浆运动的信息，只允许对火山活动进行短期预测。然而，深层岩浆补给过程仍然知之甚少。
研究组发现埃特纳火山地震频率-震级分布斜率（b值）的时间变化是火山口应力变化的一个代表，可以跟踪岩浆从深部到浅层的运动。他们分析了二十年来（2005-2024年）三个岩浆板块的地震活动，区分了岩浆从地幔补给、在中深度的转移和储存，以及最终上升到地表。此外，研究组还发现b值的时间变化比岩浆上升和喷发的地球化学异常早几个月。该研究结果表明，b值监测可以预测火山危机，支持将其集成到多参数监测系统中进行中期和长期火山监测。
附：英文原文
Title: Earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution at Mount Etna sheds light on magma ascent in the volcano’s plumbing system
Author: Marco Firetto Carlino, Rosalia Lo Bue, Matteo Taroni, Mauro Coltelli, Flavio Cannavò, Ornella Cocina, Graziella Barberi, Luciano Scarfì
Issue&Volume: 2025-10-10
Abstract: Active volcanoes in densely populated areas are generally monitored through geological observations, geophysical, and geochemical data, which provide information on magma movement in the uppermost crust, allowing only short-term predictions of volcanic activity. However, deep magma recharge processes remain poorly understood. Here, we show that temporal variations in the slope of earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution (b value) at Mount Etna, a proxy for crustal stress changes, can track magma movements from deep to shallow crustal levels. Analyzing two decades of seismicity (2005–2024) across three crustal sectors, we distinguished magma recharge from the mantle, its transfer and storage at intermediate depths, and final ascent to the surface. Moreover, we found that b value time variations can precede geochemical anomalies from magma ascent and its eruption by a few months. Our results suggest that b value monitoring could have anticipated volcanic crises, supporting its integration into multiparametric surveillance systems for medium and long-term volcano monitoring.
DOI: adx9873
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adx9873