近日，法国索邦大学C. Burgard团队揭示了海洋变暖威胁到60%南极冰架的生存能力。相关论文于2025年10月29日发表在《自然》杂志上。

南极冰架（即南极冰盖抑制冰流汇入海洋的浮动前沿）的消失将极大加速南极对海平面上升的贡献。在气候变暖背景下冰架的存续能力已引发大量研究，这些研究主要关注增暖大气的影响。

研究组以整体视角重新审视冰架存续能力，同时考虑大气与海洋导致的质量损失，以估算冰架无法维持现有形态的临界点。研究表明：若全球变暖幅度基本控制在2°C以内，到2300年64个冰架中仅可能有1个无法维持稳定；若至2300年全球变暖幅度接近12°C，当升温超过4.5°C时多数冰架将失去存续能力——其主要原因是海洋性消融加剧。

到2150年与2300年，分别将有26个和38个冰架可能失稳。受这38个冰架制约的冰盖区域若完全消融，将带来10米的海平面上升潜力。该评估是实现失稳的最晚时间界限，而冰架崩塌可能更早发生，特别是由于与水力压裂（冰架裂隙因融水渗透而扩张）的协同作用。

附：英文原文

Title: Ocean warming threatens the viability of 60% of Antarctic ice shelves

Author: Burgard, C., Jourdain, N. C., Mosbeux, C., Caillet, J., Mathiot, P., Kittel, C.

Issue&Volume: 2025-10-29

Abstract: The disappearance of ice shelves, the floating margins of the Antarctic ice sheet that restrain the ice flow into the ocean1,2,3, would strongly accelerate the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise4,5,6. Their viability in a warming world has motivated substantial work that focuses on the influence of the warming atmosphere7,8,9,10. Here we revisit the concept of ice-shelf viability in a holistic manner, taking into account mass loss due to both the atmosphere and the ocean to estimate when it becomes almost impossible for the ice shelves to maintain their present-day shape. We show that for a scenario in which global warming remains largely below 2°C, only 1 out of 64 ice shelves will become likely non-viable by 2300. For a scenario in which global warming reaches nearly 12°C by 2300, many ice shelves become non-viable once global warming exceeds 4.5°C, loss that is mainly due to an increase in ocean-induced melt. By 2150 and 2300, 26 and 38 ice shelves, respectively, become likely non-viable. Loss of ice-sheet regions restrained by these 38 ice shelves represent a sea-level rise potential of 10m. Our estimates are latest bounds for reaching non-viability, and ice-shelf collapse could occur even earlier, in particular owing to the synergy with hydrofracturing.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09657-w

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09657-w