近日，南京大学高建华团队揭示了在过去的两千年里，厄尔尼诺和南方涛动引起了西北太平洋台风路径的迁移。相关论文于2025年10月20日发表在《中国科学：地球科学》杂志上。

揭示台风活动与气候条件的时空关联并精准预测台风动态，对于完善沿海地区灾害情景评估至关重要。然而，气象观测记录的短暂性限制了对气候变化驱动下台风演变规律的全面认知，亟需通过地质记录重建古台风历史。

研究组对西北太平洋东海内陆架泥质带的两个沉积柱样进行分析，定量重建了距今约2000年来的古台风活动序列。结果发现台风活动在两个时期显著增强：约1.6-1.1千年前和约0.5-0千年前，这两个阶段与拉尼娜主导期高度吻合。在此期间，东海内陆架泥质带中由台风主导输运的台湾来源粉砂沉积物比例显著上升。在拉尼娜主导期，相对寒冷的印太暖池驱动沃克环流上升支西移与哈德利环流向赤道收缩，共同导致台风路径向西南方向偏移，致使更多台风在中国东南沿海登陆。

此外，小冰期中国东南沿海台风频率峰值是类拉尼娜气候与热带辐合带收缩南移共同作用的结果。该研究强调了厄尔尼诺-南方振荡相位振荡对西北太平洋台风路径的数百年尺度调控作用，证实陆架泥质带中物源沉积的相对比例可有效反映更长尺度上的台风频率变化。这些发现为全新世东亚地区古气候、古环境及沉积学研究提供了重要依据。

附：英文原文

Title: El Niño-Southern Oscillation induced migration of typhoon tracks in the northwestern Pacific Ocean over the last two millennia

Author: Shuo ZHANG, Vittorio MASELLI, Zhenyu ZHANG, Yang YANG, Xiaolin WANG, Xing JIAN, Yong SHI, Jianhua GAO

Issue&Volume: 2025/10/20

Abstract: Revealing the spatiotemporal relationship between typhoon variability and climate conditions, and accurately predicting typhoon activities, is crucial for improving hazard scenarios in coastal regions. However, the short meteorological record restricts a comprehensive understanding of typhoon variation driven by climate change, necessitating the reconstruction of paleo-typhoons through geological records. In this study, two sediment cores from the East China Sea inner shelf muddy belt, northwestern Pacific, were analyzed to reconstruct the paleo-typhoons quantitatively over the last ~2000yr. Our results revealed two periods of increased typhoon activity, namely ~1.6 to 1.1ka, and ~0.5 to 0ka, which were consistent with La Nia-dominated intervals. Meanwhile, in the East China Sea inner shelf muddy belt, the proportion of silt sediments from Taiwan, whose transport process is dominated by typhoon activities, significantly increased. During La Nia-dominated intervals, the relatively cold Indo-Pacific Warm Pool induced a southwestward migration of typhoons by driving the westward migration of the rising limb of the Walker Circulation and the equatorward contraction of the Hadley Cell. Consequently, more typhoons made landfall in southeast China during La Nia-dominated intervals. In addition, the peak maximum typhoon frequency in southeast China during the Little Ice Age was a consequence of the combined effects of La Nia-like intervals and the contraction and migration of the intertropical convergence zone. Our findings emphasized the force of El Nio-Southern Oscillation phase oscillation on typhoon tracks in the northwestern Pacific over several centuries, and the relative proportion of Taiwan sediments in the shelf muddy belt can reflect the changes in typhoon frequency over longer timescales. These results contribute valuable insights for paleoclimatic, paleoenvironmental, and sedimentological studies in East Asia during the Holocene.

DOI: 10.1007/s11430-024-1690-7

Source: https://www.sciengine.com/SCES/doi/10.1007/s11430-024-1690-7