近日，美国科罗拉多州立大学Timothy Ohlert团队揭示了干旱强度和持续时间相互作用，扩大了初级生产力的损失。2025年10月16日出版的《科学》杂志发表了这项成果。
随着干旱时间的延长和加剧，其对陆地初级生产力的影响预计将逐步增加。然而，一些生态系统似乎适应了多年干旱，随着干旱持续时间的增加，生产力不断下降或逐渐减少。
研究组量化了全球74个草原和灌丛地干旱持续时间和强度对地上生产力的综合影响。除了极端干旱（即发生概率≤100年1次）的情况外，总体上观察到生态系统对多年干旱的适应。与第一年相比，连续几年极端干旱后的生产力损失增加了约2.5倍。这些结果预示着，如果干旱持续时间和强度增加，生态系统行为将发生根本性转变，从长期维持减少的功能，到极端干旱时生产力的逐步和严重损失。
附：英文原文
Title: Drought intensity and duration interact to magnify losses in primary productivity
Author: Timothy Ohlert, Melinda D. Smith, Scott L. Collins, Alan K. Knapp, Jeffrey S. Dukes, Osvaldo Sala, Kate D. Wilkins, Seth M. Munson, Maggie I. Anderson, Meghan L. Avolio, Anping Chen, Meghan T. Hayden, Martin C. Holdrege, Ingrid J. Slette, Peter Wilfahrt, Claus Beier, Lauchlan H. Fraser, Anke Jentsch, Michael E. Loik, Yiqi Luo, Fernando T. Maestre, Richard P. Phillips, Sally A. Power, Laura Yahdjian, Qiang Yu, Angel Chen, Andrew J. Felton, Laureano A. Gherardi, Nicholas J. Lyon, Hamed Abdoli, Mehdi Abedi, Juan Alberti, Antonio I. Arroyo, Heidi Asbjornsen, Harald Auge, Seton Bachle, Michael Bahn, David C. Bartholomew, Amgaa Batbaatar, Taryn L. Bauerle, Karen H. Beard, Kai Behn, Ilka Beil, Lucio Biancari, Irmgard Blindow, Viviana Florencia Bondaruk, Elizabeth T. Borer, Edward W. Bork, Carlos Martin Bruschetti, Kerry M. Byrne, James F. CahillJr., Dianela A. Calvo, Michele Carbognani, Cameron N. Carlyle, Karen Castillioni, Miguel Castillo-Garcia, Manjunatha H. Chandregowda, Scott X. Chang, Jeff Chieppa, Amber C. Churchill, Marcus Vinicius Cianciaruso, Amanda L Cordeiro, Sara A. O. Cousins, Daniela F. Cusack, Sven Dahlke, Pedro Daleo, Lee H. Dietterich, Maren Dubbert, Nico Eisenhauer, T’ai G. W. Forte, Flavia A. Funk, Darcy Galiano, Aaron C. Greenville, Liebao Han, Siri Vats Haugum, Yann Hautier, Andy Hector, Hugh A. L. Henry, Daniela Hoss, Forest Isbell, Samuel E. Jordan, Yuguang Ke, Eugene F. Kelly, Sally E. Koerner, Juergen Kreyling, Gyrgy Krel-Dulay, Alicia I. Krpfl, Angelika Kübert, Andrew Kulmatiski, Eric G. Lamb, Klaus Steenberg Larsen, Steven Lee, Smriti Pehim Limbu, Anja Linstdter, Shirong Liu, Grisel Longo, Alejandro Loydi, Junwei Luan, F. Curtis Lubbe, Andrey V. Malyshev, Cameron D. McIntire, Daniel B. Metcalfe, Malesela Vincent Mokoka, Akira S. Mori, Edwin Mudongo, Gregory S. Newman, Uffe N. Nielsen, Raúl Ochoa-Hueso, Rory C. O’Connor, Romà Ogaya, Gastón R. Oatibia, Ildikó Orbán, Brooke B. Osborne, Rafael Otfinowski, Meelis Prtel, Jesús Pascual, Josep Peuelas, Pablo L. Peri, David S. Pescador, Guadalupe Peter, Alessandro Petraglia, Catherine Picon-Cochard, Valério D. Pillar, Juan M. Pieiro-Guerra, Laura Weber Ploughe, Robert M. Plowes, Cristy Portales-Reyes, Suzanne M. Prober, Yolanda Pueyo, Golsa Rahmati, Sasha C. Reed, Dana Aylén Rodríguez, William E. Rogers, Christiane Roscher, David W. Rowley, Ana M. Sánchez, Bráulio A. Santos, Michael P. Schellenberg, Michael Scherer-Lorenzen, Eric W. Seabloom, Ruonan Shen, Baoku Shi, Lara Souza, Andreas Stampfli, Rachel J. Standish, Marcelo Sternberg, Wei Sun, Marie Sünnemann, Michelle Tedder, Tyson J. Terry
Issue&Volume: 2025-10-16
Abstract: As droughts become longer and more intense, impacts on terrestrial primary productivity are expected to increase progressively. Yet, some ecosystems appear to acclimate to multiyear drought, with constant or diminishing reductions in productivity as drought duration increases. We quantified the combined effects of drought duration and intensity on aboveground productivity in 74 grasslands and shrublands distributed globally. Ecosystem acclimation with multiyear drought was observed overall, except when droughts were extreme (i.e., ≤1-in-100-year likelihood of occurrence). Productivity losses after four consecutive years of extreme drought increased by ~2.5-fold compared with those of the first year. These results portend a foundational shift in ecosystem behavior if drought duration and intensity increase, from maintenance of reduced functioning over time to progressive and profound losses of productivity when droughts are extreme.
DOI: ads8144
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ads8144