美国亚利桑那大学Trouet Valerie团队近日取得一项新成果。他们分析了自1300年以来急流对欧洲气候和农业的控制。相关论文于2024年9月25日发表在《自然》杂志上。

据了解，急流是北半球中纬度地区气候变率的重要动力驱动因素。北大西洋—欧洲部分(欧盟JSL)夏季急流纬度位置的现代变率，促进了欧洲西北部和东南部之间气压、温度、降水和干旱的偶极模式。然而，研究人员对人为影响变暖之前的欧盟JSL变率，及其对区域极端气候和社会事件的影响了解甚少。

基于三个对温度敏感的欧洲树木年轮记录，研究人员重建了1300-2004年欧盟夏季JSL的年际变化(R²=38.5%)，并将其与独立的历史记录气候和社会记录(如葡萄收成、粮食价格、瘟疫和人类死亡率)进行了比较。研究人员称，这些夏季极端气候与追溯到1300年的欧盟JSJ变率以及生物物理、经济和人类人口影响相关。根据对改变的急流行为和加剧的极端气候的预测，研究结果强调了在评估未来扩大的气候风险时，考虑欧盟JSL变率的重要性。

附：英文原文

Title: Jet stream controls on European climate and agriculture since 1300 ce

Author: Xu, Guobao, Broadman, Ellie, Dorado-Lin, Isabel, Klippel, Lara, Meko, Matthew, Bntgen, Ulf, De Mil, Tom, Esper, Jan, Gunnarson, Bjrn, Hartl, Claudia, Krusic, Paul J., Linderholm, Hans W., Ljungqvist, Fredrik C., Ludlow, Francis, Panayotov, Momchil, Seim, Andrea, Wilson, Rob, Zamora-Reyes, Diana, Trouet, Valerie

Issue&Volume: 2024-09-25

Abstract: The jet stream is an important dynamic driver of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Modern variability in the position of summer jet stream latitude in the North Atlantic–European sector (EU JSL) promotes dipole patterns in air pressure, temperature, precipitation and drought between northwestern and southeastern Europe. EU JSL variability and its impacts on regional climatic extremes and societal events are poorly understood, particularly before anthropogenic warming. Based on three temperature-sensitive European tree-ring records, we develop a reconstruction of interannual summer EU JSL variability over the period 1300–2004 CE (R²=38.5%) and compare it to independent historical documented climatic and societal records, such as grape harvest, grain prices, plagues and human mortality. Here we show contrasting summer climate extremes associated with EU JSL variability back to 1300 CE as well as biophysical, economic and human demographic impacts, including wildfires and epidemics. In light of projections for altered jet stream behaviour and intensified climate extremes, our findings underscore the importance of considering EU JSL variability when evaluating amplified future climate risk.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07985-x

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07985-x