该团队使用一种多代理和古气候建模的方法来建立一个统一的理论，阐明了泛古世界对导致灭绝状态的，长期和加剧的厄尔尼诺现象的高度敏感性。在二叠纪晚期，随着大气中二氧化碳的分压从410ppm增加到860ppm(百万分之一)，经向翻转环流崩溃，哈德利环流收缩，厄尔尼诺现象加剧。
随之而来的森林砍伐、珊瑚礁消亡和浮游生物危机，标志着一场连锁环境灾难的开始。碳固存作用的减少引发了正反馈，产生了更温暖的气候，从而导致了更强的厄尔尼诺现象。气候变率升高和平均状态变暖的复合效应，导致了灾难性但具有穿时性的陆地和海洋损失。
附：英文原文
Title: Mega El Nino instigated the end-Permian mass extinction
Author: Yadong Sun, Alexander Farnsworth, Michael M. Joachimski, Paul B. Wignall, Leopold Krystyn, David P. G. Bond, Domenico C. G. Ravidà, Paul J. Valdes
Issue&Volume: 2024-09-13
Abstract: The ultimate driver of the end-Permian mass extinction is a topic of much debate. Here, we used a multiproxy and paleoclimate modeling approach to establish a unifying theory elucidating the heightened susceptibility of the Pangean world to the prolonged and intensified El Nino events leading to an extinction state. As atmospheric partial pressure of carbon dioxide doubled from about 410 to about 860 ppm (parts per million) in the latest Permian, the meridional overturning circulation collapsed, the Hadley cell contracted, and El Ninos intensified. The resultant deforestation, reef demise, and plankton crisis marked the start of a cascading environmental disaster. Reduced carbon sequestration initiated positive feedback, producing a warmer hothouse and, consequently, stronger El Ninos. The compounding effects of elevated climate variability and mean state warming led to catastrophic but diachronous terrestrial and marine losses.
DOI: ado2030
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ado2030