挪威奥斯陆国际气候与环境研究中心Iles, Carley E.研究组，报道了高排放和低排放路径下未来二十年极端天气的强区域性趋势。相关论文发表在2024年9月9日出版的《自然—地球科学》杂志上。

研究人员使用大型气候模型模拟集合表明，在高排放路径下，热带和亚热带的大部分地区（包括目前全球人口的70%），预计将在未来20年经历强烈的(>2s.d.)温度和降水极端联合变化，在强有力的减排措施下下降到20%。这主要是由极端温度造成的，相对于工业化前时期，世界上大部分地区都经历了反常的(＞1s.d.)变化。但在北部高纬度地区、南亚和东亚以及赤道非洲，也发生了极端降水这样反常的变化。

然而，20年趋势的内部可变性很高，这意味着在短期内，极端降水仍有可能出现相反的趋势，极端温度很少出现，但并非不可能。该研究还发现，气溶胶排放的迅速清除，主要是在亚洲上空，导致极端温暖事件加速同步增加，并影响亚洲夏季季风。

据研究人员介绍，全球变暖正在迅速改变社会和生态系统所适应的气候条件。虽然平均和极端气候的变化幅度得到了广泛的研究，但作为气候风险关键驱动因素的区域变化率受到的关注较少。

附：英文原文

Title: Strong regional trends in extreme weather over the next two decades under high- and low-emissions pathways

Author: Iles, Carley E., Samset, Bjrn H., Sandstad, Marit, Schuhen, Nina, Wilcox, Laura J., Lund, Marianne T.

Issue&Volume: 2024-09-09

Abstract: Global warming is rapidly shifting climate conditions away from what societies and ecosystems are adapted to. While the magnitude of changes in mean and extreme climate are broadly studied, regional rates of change, a key driver of climate risk, have received less attention. Here we show, using large ensembles of climate model simulations, that large parts of the tropics and subtropics, encompassing 70% of current global population, are expected to experience strong (>2s.d.) joint rates of change in temperature and precipitation extremes combined over the next 20years, under a high-emissions scenario, dropping to 20% under strong emissions mitigation. This is dominated by temperature extremes, with most of the world experiencing unusual (>1s.d.) rates relative to the pre-industrial period, but unusual changes also occur for precipitation extremes in northern high latitudes, southern and eastern Asia and equatorial Africa. However, internal variability is high for 20year trends, meaning that in the near term, trends of the opposite sign are still likely for precipitation extremes, and rare but not impossible for temperature extremes. We also find that rapid clean-up of aerosol emissions, mostly over Asia, leads to accelerated co-located increases in warm extremes and influences the Asian summer monsoons.

DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01511-4

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01511-4