中国气象局国家气候中心张永香首席研究员等对中国过去530年以来4-9月份的降水和极端干旱事件进行了高分辨率的重建。这一研究成果于2024年6月28日发表在国际顶尖学术期刊《科学通报》上。

研究基于590个代用记录，470个树木年轮宽度年表和120个旱涝指数，用逐点回归方法重建了中国530年来4-9月的降水场。回归模型解释了平均50%的降水量变化。在校正和验证的统计检验中，该模型通过了保证重建质量的显著性水平。重建数据表现良好，显示出一致性和质量优于先前报道的重建。重建的前3个主要变率模态揭示了中国降水的主要分布模态。中国过去的530年中，多雨/干旱年和极端多雨/干旱年分别占12.81%/10.92%(68年/58年)和1.69%/3.20%(9年/17年)。

重大的极端干旱事件可以在其重建中得到明确的识别。崇祯大旱(1637-1643)、万历大旱(1585-1590)和定武大饥荒(1874-1879)的详细特征表明，可能存在不同的潜在机制，需要进一步探索。虽然对偏远无人区和大沙漠的网格化重建还有待进一步改进，但他们对中国过去约530年4-9月降水的网格化重建，可以为研究气候变化的归因和极端干旱事件的机制提供坚实的数据库。

据悉，在当前变暖的情况下，极端干旱事件有所增加，对社会经济造成了严重的损失和破坏。然而，短期气象数据限制了人们对这些极端事件的理解和预测。随着代用数据尤其是年轮数据的积累，大尺度降水场的重建为进一步探索其机制提供了机会。

附：英文原文

Title: High-resolution reconstruction of April–September precipitation and major extreme drougts in China over the past ～530 years

Author: Yongxiang Zhang, Hongli Wang, Xuemei Shao, Hongbin Liu, Haifeng Zhu, Lily Wang, Eryuan Liang, Zhixin Hao, Xiuqi Fang, Qibin Zhang, Jinjian Li, Xinghe Shi, Yujiang Yuan, Feng Chen, Tongwen Zhang, Ruibo Zhang, Huaming Shang, Jianfeng Peng

Issue&Volume: 2024/06/28

Abstract: Extreme drought events have increased, causing serious losses and damage to the social economy under current warming conditions. However, short-term meteorological data limit our understanding and projection of these extremes. With the accumulation of proxy data, especially tree-ring data, large-scale precipitation field reconstruction has provided opportunities to explore underlying mechanisms further. Using point-by-point regression, we reconstructed the April–September precipitation field in China for the past ～530 years on the basis of 590 proxy records, including 470 tree-ring width chronologies and 120 drought/flood indices. Our regression models explained average 50% of the variance in precipitation. In the statistical test on calibration and verification, our models passed the significance level that assured reconstruction quality. The reconstruction data performed well, showing consistency and better quality than previously reported reconstructions. The first three leading modes of variability in the reconstruction revealed the main distribution modes of precipitation over China. Wet/drought and extremely wet/drought years accounted for 12.81%/10.92% (68 years/58 years) and 1.69%/3.20% (9 years/17 years) of the past ～530 years in China, respectively. Major extreme drought events can be identified explicitly in our reconstruction. The detailed features of the Chongzhen Great Drought (1637–1643), the Wanli great drought(1585–1590) and the Ding-Wu Great Famine (1874–1879), indicated the existence of potentially different underlying mechanisms that need further exploration. Although further improvements can be made for remote uninhabited areas and large deserts, our gridded reconstruction of April–September precipitation in China over the past ～530 years can provide a solid database for studies on the attribution of climate change and the mechanism of extreme drought events.

DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2024.06.034

Source: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2095927324004596