英国班戈大学Woolway R. Iestyn研究团队报道了超过自然温度变化的湖泊状况的出现。2024年7月12日出版的《自然—地球科学》发表了这项成果。
据悉，预计在气候变化的影响下，湖泊表面温度将升高，这可能引发未来对热敏感的水生物种分布的变化。对湖泊生态系统来说，特别值得关注的是温度升高超出了自然变化的范围，无论是现在还是过去都没有类似的情况。然而，人们对这种非相似条件何时出现的知识仍然不确定。
研究人员通过对SSP3-7.0地球系统模式投影的日输出数据进行分析，发现在全球变暖超过工业化前条件4.0°C的情况下，这种状况将在许多北方湖泊的表面出现。在温度上升2.4°C的情况下，在低纬度地区，主要因为自然变率范围较弱，增加了湖泊温度超过自然上限的可能性。类似的模式也反映在地下水中，无类似条件首先出现在低纬度地区，如果有的话，最后出现在高纬度地区。
研究结果表明，全球变暖将引起整个水柱的变化，特别是在低纬度地区，导致前所未有的气候出现，而现代没有类似的气候，可能会影响它们的可居住性，并导致本世纪淡水栖息地的重新排列。
附：英文原文
Title: Emergence of lake conditions that exceed natural temperature variability
Author: Huang, Lei, Woolway, R. Iestyn, Timmermann, Axel, Lee, Sun-Seon, Rodgers, Keith B., Yamaguchi, Ryohei
Issue&Volume: 2024-07-12
Abstract: Lake surface temperatures are projected to increase under climate change, which could trigger shifts in the future distribution of thermally sensitive aquatic species. Of particular concern for lake ecosystems are when temperatures increase outside the range of natural variability, without analogue either today or in the past. However, our knowledge of when such no-analogue conditions will appear remains uncertain. Here, using daily outputs from a large ensemble of SSP3-7.0 Earth system model projections, we show that these conditions will emerge at the surface of many northern lakes under a global warming of 4.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. No-analogue conditions will occur sooner, under 2.4°C of warming, at lower latitudes, primarily due to a weaker range of natural variability, which increases the likelihood of the upper natural limit of lake temperature being exceeded. Similar patterns are also projected in subsurface water, with no-analogue conditions occurring first at low latitudes and occurring last, if at all, at higher latitudes. Our study suggests that global warming will induce changes across the water column, particularly at low latitudes, leading to the emergence of unparalleled climates with no modern counterparts, probably affecting their habitability and leading to rearrangements of freshwater habitats this century.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-024-01491-5
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01491-5