浙江大学蒋明凯与合作者发现，碳磷循环模型高估了成熟桉树林的CO2富集响应。相关成果2024年7月5日在线发表于《科学进展》杂志。

磷(P)在调节生态系统对气候变化的响应中的重要性促进了P循环在陆地表面模型中的实施，但它们的CO₂效应预测尚未与测量结果进行评估。研究人员进行了一个数据驱动的模型评估，其中模拟了8个广泛使用的P-enabled模型，并将其与长期自由空气CO₂富集实验的观测结果进行了对比。

研究表明，大多数模型预测了CO₂对生态系统碳(C)固存影响的正确符号和幅度，但它们通常高估了对植物碳吸收和生长的影响。研究认为光合作用的叶片-冠层尺度、植物组织化学计量学、植物地下碳分配以及植物-微生物相互作用的后果，是生态系统碳-磷相互作用模型可以改进的关键领域。

总之，这种数据模型的相互比较揭示了数据驱动的对p支持模型的性能和功能的见解，并增加了现有的证据，即模型高估了全球CO₂驱动的碳汇。

附：英文原文

Title: Carbon-phosphorus cycle models overestimate CO2 enrichment response in a mature Eucalyptus forest

Authors: MINGKAI JIANG,BELINDA E. MEDLYN,BENJAMIN SMITH,etc

Issue&Volume: 2024-07-05

Abstract: The importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating ecosystem responses to climate change has fostered P-cycle implementation in land surface models, but their CO2 effects predictions have not been evaluated against measurements. Here, we perform a data-driven model evaluation where simulations of eight widely used P-enabled models were confronted with observations from a long-term free-air CO2 enrichment experiment in a mature, P-limited Eucalyptus forest. We show that most models predicted the correct sign and magnitude of the CO2 effect on ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration, but they generally overestimated the effects on plant C uptake and growth. We identify leaf-to-canopy scaling of photosynthesis, plant tissue stoichiometry, plant belowground C allocation, and the subsequent consequences for plant-microbial interaction as key areas in which models of ecosystem C-P interaction can be improved. Together, this data-model intercomparison reveals data-driven insights into the performance and functionality of P-enabled models and adds to the existing evidence that the global CO2-driven carbon sink is overestimated by models.

Doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adl5822

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adl5822