日本神户大学Koue, Jinichi建立了考虑底部沉积物的厌氧和好氧环境的流场生态系统模型，以评估气候变化对溶解氧的影响。2024年6月26日出版的《地球化学学报》发表了这项成果。

据悉，本研究考察了气候变化对日本最大的淡水湖Biwa湖的潜在影响，重点关注了温度、风速和降水变化。利用IPCC第六次评估报告中的数据，包括CCP情景，预测在GHG排放功率非常高的情况下，温度将显著上升3.3-5.7°C，该研究调查了这些变化如何影响Biwa湖的溶解氧水平。

研究建立了一个包含沉积物氧化还原反应的一维模型，模拟了气温和风速变化的各种情况。结果表明，气温每升高5℃，表层向底层溶解氧浓度会降低1-2 mg/L，而气温每降低1-3mg/L，溶解氧浓度会升高1-3mg/L。此外，风速加倍会增加表层氧气，但由于混合增加，深层氧气会减少。风效应的季节变化显著，夏季至秋季表层氧由0.4mg/L增加至0.8mg/L，秋季至冬季表层氧由0.4mg/L增加至0.8mg/L。

这种现象全年影响着湖泊的氧气循环。相比之下，降水变化对氧含量的影响有限，与其他气象因素相比影响较小。该研究表明，为了准确预测未来的水条件，有必要建立综合的三维模型，考虑湖泊特定的地理因素。综合营养水平、水温和河流流入的整体方法被认为对Biwa湖水资源的可持续管理至关重要，特别是在解决降水变化方面。

附：英文原文

Title: Assessing the impact of climate change on dissolved oxygen using a flow field ecosystem model that takes into account the anaerobic and aerobic environment of bottom sediments

Author: Koue, Jinichi

Issue&Volume: 2024-06-26

Abstract: This study examines the potential impacts of climate change on Lake Biwa, Japan’s largest freshwater lake, with a focus on temperature, wind speed, and precipitation variations. Leveraging data from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, including CCP scenarios, projecting a significant temperature rise of 3.3–5.7 °C in the case of very high GHG emission power, the research investigates how these shifts may influence dissolved oxygen levels in Lake Biwa. Through a one-dimensional model incorporating sediment redox reactions, various scenarios where air temperature and wind speed are changed are simulated. It is revealed that a 5 °C increase in air temperature leads to decreasing 1–2 mg/L of dissolved oxygen concentrations from the surface layer to the bottom layer, while a decrease in air temperature tends to elevate 1–3 mg/L of oxygen levels. Moreover, doubling wind speed enhances surface layer oxygen but diminishes it in deeper layers due to increased mixing. Seasonal variations in wind effects are noted, with significant surface layer oxygen increases from 0.4 to 0.8 mg/L during summer to autumn, increases from 0.4 to 0.8 mg/L in autumn to winter due to intensified vertical mixing. This phenomenon impacts the lake’s oxygen cycle year-round. In contrast, precipitation changes show limited impact on oxygen levels, suggesting minor influence compared to other meteorological factors. The study suggests the necessity of comprehensive three-dimensional models that account for lake-specific and geographical factors for accurate predictions of future water conditions. A holistic approach integrating nutrient levels, water temperature, and river inflow is deemed essential for sustainable management of Lake Biwa’s water resources, particularly in addressing precipitation variations.

DOI: 10.1007/s11631-024-00711-4

Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11631-024-00711-4