据介绍，未来珊瑚白化的时空格局是不确定的，这阻碍了人们对全球保护珊瑚礁免受气候变化影响的努力。
研究人员对海洋变暖的每日预测进行了分析，确定了本世纪全球珊瑚礁出现严重白化风险的严重程度、年持续时间和开始时间，还确定了重要的气候避难所。研究结果表明，低纬度珊瑚区最容易受到热应力的影响，并且很难从气候减缓中得到缓解。到2080年，大多数珊瑚礁可能会在春季开始白化，而不是夏末。
尽管全球努力减少有害的温室气体排放，但一些低纬度珊瑚礁的全年白化风险预计会很高。通过确定地球上加速白化风险最低的珊瑚礁区域，研究结果将优先努力限制珊瑚礁生物多样性的未来丧失。
附：英文原文
Title: Cumulative risk of future bleaching for the world’s coral reefs
Author: Camille Mellin, Stuart Brown, Neal Cantin, Eduardo Klein-Salas, David Mouillot, Scott F. Heron, Damien A. Fordham
Issue&Volume: 2024-06-28
Abstract: Spatial and temporal patterns of future coral bleaching are uncertain, hampering global conservation efforts to protect coral reefs against climate change. Our analysis of daily projections of ocean warming establishes the severity, annual duration, and onset of severe bleaching risk for global coral reefs this century, pinpointing vital climatic refugia. We show that low-latitude coral regions are most vulnerable to thermal stress and will experience little reprieve from climate mitigation. By 2080, coral bleaching is likely to start on most reefs in spring, rather than late summer, with year-round bleaching risk anticipated to be high for some low-latitude reefs regardless of global efforts to mitigate harmful greenhouse gasses. By identifying Earth’s reef regions that are at lowest risk of accelerated bleaching, our results will prioritize efforts to limit future loss of coral reef biodiversity.
DOI: adn9660
Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adn9660