美国克莱姆森大学Dongwei Chen团队通过Wasserstein稳定性分析发现了21世纪初的气候变化。2024年6月22日出版的《大气科学进展》发表了这项成果。

据悉，气候变化是气候科学中的一个重要话题，近年来，准确、高分辨率的数据集的可访问性有助于从大数据资源中提取更多的见解。然而，目前的研究主要集中在平均值的变化上，很大程度上忽略了概率分布的变化。

该研究提出了一种新的Wasserstein稳定性分析(WSA)方法，来识别气候变化中的概率密度函数(PDF)变化，特别是极端事件转移和非线性物理值限制变化。研究人员将WSA应用于21世纪初，并与传统的均值趋势分析方法进行了比较。结果表明，尽管没有明显的趋势，但赤道东太平洋的极端热事件减少，极端冷事件增加，表明出现了类似拉尼娜的温度变化。

对北极的两个地点进一步分析表明，海冰严重限制了地表气温的极端高温。随着海冰融化，这种影响正在减弱。研究结果强调，通过揭示PDF的变化，WSA成为重新审视气候变化动态的强大工具，为理解气候演变提供了增强的数据驱动见解。

附：英文原文

Title: Discover Climate Change during the Early 21st Century via Wasserstein Stability Analysis

Author: Zhiang Xie, Dongwei Chen, Puxi Li

Issue&Volume: 2024-06-22

Abstract: Climate change is an essential topic in climate science, and the accessibility of accurate, high-resolution datasets in recent years facilitates the extraction of more insights from big data resources. Nonetheless, prevailing research has predominantly focused on mean value changes and largely overlooks changes in the probability distribution. In this study, a novel method called Wasserstein Stability Analysis (WSA) is developed to identify Probability Density Function (PDF) changes, especially the extreme event shift and non-linear physical value constraint variation in climate change. WSA is applied to the early 21st century and is compared with the traditional mean-value trend analysis. The result indicates that despite no significant trend, the equatorial eastern Pacific experienced a decline in hot extremes and an increase in cold extremes, indicating a La Nina-like temperature shift. Further analysis at two Arctic locations suggests sea ice severely restricts the hot extremes of surface air temperature. This impact is diminishing as sea ice melts. By revealing shifts in PDF, WSA emerges as a powerful tool to reexamine climate change dynamics, providing enhanced data-driven insights for understanding climate evolution.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-024-3324-6

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-024-3324-6viewType=HTML