德国约翰内斯古腾堡大学Esper, Jan课题组揭示，2023年为有记录以来最热的一年。该研究于2024年5月14日发表于国际一流学术期刊《自然》杂志上。

据悉，包括异常温暖的北半球(NH)夏季，2023年已被报道为有记录以来最热的一年。然而，将最近的人为变暖与过去的自然变暖相比较是非常重要的，因为19世纪稀疏的气象记录往往过于温暖。

研究人员结合观测和重建的6-8月地表气温，以显示2023年是过去2000年来最热的NH热带外夏季，比自然气候变率的95%置信范围高出0.5摄氏度以上。研究人员将2023年JJA变暖与536CE重建最冷夏季的比较表明，前人类世至2023年的最大温度变化幅度为3.93°C。尽管2023年与由温室气体引起的变暖趋势相一致，而正在发生的厄尔尼诺现象又扩大了这一趋势。无论如何，这一极端情况强调了实施国际碳减排协议的紧迫性。

附：英文原文

Title: 2023 summer warmth unparalleled over the past 2,000 years

Author: Esper, Jan, Torbenson, Max, Bntgen, Ulf

Issue&Volume: 2024-05-14

Abstract: Including an exceptionally warm Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer, 2023 has been reported as the hottest year on record. Contextualizing recent anthropogenic warming against past natural variability is nontrivial, however, because the sparse 19th century meteorological records tend to be too warm. Here, we combine observed and reconstructed June-August (JJA) surface air temperatures to show that 2023 was the warmest NH extra-tropical summer over the past 2000 years exceeding the 95% confidence range of natural climate variability by more than half a degree Celsius. Comparison of the 2023 JJA warming against the coldest reconstructed summer in 536 CE reveals a maximum range of pre-Anthropocene-to-2023 temperatures of 3.93°C. Although 2023 is consistent with a greenhouse gases-induced warming trend7 that is amplified by an unfolding El Nio event8, this extreme emphasizes the urgency to implement international agreements for carbon emission reduction.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07512-y

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07512-y