复旦大学周文教授团队在研究中国极端气象干旱事件（1951-2022）的迁移模式、极端温度的多样性和年代际变化中取得新进展。2024年5月9日，国际知名学术期刊《大气科学进展》发表了这一成果。

研究主要成果如下：第一，应用新开发的基于三维DBSCAN的探测方法，生成了面向事件的中国极端气象干旱数据集(存储在https://doi.org/10.25452/figshare.plthem.25512334上)，并通过历史地图集和专著进行了逐案验证。其次，考虑到纬度带和沿海/内陆位置的差异，确定不同的迁移模式(即固定/传播类型)并进行排序。第三，研究分析了同步极端温度(如热和冷)的多样性。

自20世纪90年代末以来，中国的高温干旱有增加的趋势，主要出现在30°N以南和40°N以北。以综合震级指数对所有干旱事件和同步极端温度事件进行排序，其中2022年夏秋长江炎热干旱最为严重。此外，基于Liang-Kleeman信息流的热性分析，强调了PDO和AMO影响干旱和极端温度覆盖度年代际变化的关键领域。研究人员相信本研究成果可能为序列机制探索和预测相关问题提供新的见解。

据悉，最近，极端的气象干旱袭击了中国，并造成了可怕的社会经济影响。尽管前人对干旱的时空特征和机制进行了研究，但对两个关键问题的探讨仍然很少：一方面，迫切需要一个具有详细时空演变特征的事件导向干旱集；另一方面，需要对同步极端温度的复杂迁移模式和多样性进行定量研究。

附：英文原文

Title: Extreme Meteorological Drought Events over China (1951—2022): migration pattern, diversity of temperature extremes, and decadal variations

Author: Zhenchen LIU, Wen Zhou, Xin Wang

Issue&Volume: 2024-05-09

Abstract: Recently, extreme meteorological droughts hit China and caused terrible socioeconomic influences. Despite previous research on the spatiotemporal characteristics and mechanisms, the two crucial issues remain seldom explored: On one hand, an event-oriented drought set with detailed spatiotemporal evolutions is urgently required. On the other hand, complex migration patterns and diversity of synchronous temperature extremes need to be quantitatively investigated. Accordingly, the main achievements are concluded as follows: First, we applied the newly developed 3D DBSCAN-based detection method to produce an event-oriented set of extreme meteorological droughts over China (deposited on https://doi.org/10.25452/figshare.plus.25512334), which have been verified with historical atlas and monographs case by case. Second, distinctive migration patterns (i.e., stationary/propagation types) are identified and ranked, considering differences in latitudinal zones and coastal/inland locations. Third, we analyzed the diversity of synchronous temperature extremes (e.g., hotness and coldness). An increasing trend in hot droughts has been observed over China since the late 1990s, predominantly appearing to the south of 30°N and the north of 40°N. All the drought events and synchronous temperature extremes are ranked using a comprehensive magnitude index, with the 2022 summer-autumn Yangtze River hot drought the hottest. Furthermore, the Liang-Kleeman information flow-based causality analysis emphasizes key areas where PDO and AMO influence decadal variations in coverages of droughts and temperature extremes. We believe that achievements in this study may offer new insights into sequential mechanism exploration and prediction-related issues.

DOI: 10.1007/s00376-024-4004-2

Source: http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/en/article/doi/10.1007/s00376-024-4004-2viewType=HTML