近日，意大利海洋动物保护和公众参与部教授Danise Silvia及其团队，研究揭示了热带大西洋入侵地中海的开始。2024年4月1日，国际知名学术期刊《美国科学院院刊》发表了这一成果。

据研究人员介绍，地中海是海洋生物多样性的热点地区，已经受到气候驱动的生物多样性崩溃的影响。如果全球变暖引发热带大西洋物种的入侵，其高度特有的动物将面临进一步的风险。

该团队将现代物种的出现与末次间冰期(135-116ka)的独特古记录(对未来气候的保守模拟)结合起来，以模拟热带西非软体动物的一个示例子集的未来分布，这些软体动物目前因受非洲西北部的冷上升流影响而与地中海分离。

研究人员表明，到2050年，在中等气候情景(RCP 4.5)下，非洲西北部的气候连通性可能会使得热带物种在环境基本适宜的地中海定居。最糟糕的情况是到2100年，RCP8.5将导致地中海完全热带化。热带大西洋的入侵将加剧正在通过苏伊士运河进行的印度-太平洋入侵，不可逆转地将整个地中海转变为人类历史上前所未有的新型生态系统。

附：英文原文

Title: The dawn of the tropical Atlantic invasion into the Mediterranean Sea

Author: Albano, Paolo G., Schultz, Lotta, Wessely, Johannes, Taviani, Marco, Dullinger, Stefan, Danise, Silvia

Issue&Volume: 2024-4-1

Abstract: The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hotspot already affected by climate-driven biodiversity collapses. Its highly endemic fauna is at further risk if global warming triggers an invasion of tropical Atlantic species. Here, we combine modern species occurrences with a unique paleorecord from the Last Interglacial (135 to 116 ka), a conservative analog of future climate, to model the future distribution of an exemplary subset of tropical West African mollusks, currently separated from the Mediterranean by cold upwelling off north-west Africa. We show that, already under an intermediate climate scenario (RCP 4.5) by 2050, climatic connectivity along north-west Africa may allow tropical species to colonize a by then largely environmentally suitable Mediterranean. The worst-case scenario RCP 8.5 leads to a fully tropicalized Mediterranean by 2100. The tropical Atlantic invasion will add to the ongoing Indo-Pacific invasion through the Suez Canal, irreversibly transforming the entire Mediterranean into a novel ecosystem unprecedented in human history.

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2320687121

Source: https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2320687121